{"id": "auction_result", "framework": "supply", "framework_title": "Treasury supply", "title": "Latest coupon auction", "kind": "event", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "ratio", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "calm", "previous_state": "watch", "state_changed_on": "2026-10-07", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "value": "2.540", "value_display": "2.54×", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "29-Year 10-Month auction on 8 Oct 2026: bid-to-cover 2.54× vs 2.42× trailing-12 mean; dealers 6.8 %, indirects 72.3 %; high yield 5.618 %; tail not computed.", "provenance": {"event": {"table": "auctions", "cusip": "912810UW6", "auction_date": "2026-10-08", "term": "29-Year 10-Month", "type": "Bond", "url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/TA_WS/securities/search?cusip=912810UW6&format=json", "results_pdf": "R_20261008_3.pdf", "snapshot": "sha256:e6a4774e733df44943481424498dc97bdb8b9d377e1e8d727879cc02a3012c2f", "fetched_at": "2026-10-08T17:05:00"}, "scoring": {"calm": "btc >= mean12(btc) - 0.10 and dealer_share <= mean12(dealer_share) + 5 and indirect_share >= mean12(indirect_share) - 5", "watch": "otherwise", "stress": "btc < 2.0 or dealer_share >= 30", "breach": "dealer_share >= 50 or (tail_bp is not null and tail_bp >= 3 and term in ['10-Year','30-Year'])"}, "stated_by": "project", "rationale": "he names the internals (indirect bid first, then tail, then bid-to-cover) but gives no numbers; bands are relative to the trailing twelve auctions of the same term", "explainer": {"title": "Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours", "date": "2026-03-29", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/why-the-treasurys-nightmare-may-soon"}, "tail": {"computed": false, "value_bp": null, "source_url": null, "entered_by": null}}, "extras": {"event": {"btc": "2.540", "dealer_share": "6.79", "indirect_share": "72.32", "direct_share": "20.89", "high_yield": "5.6180", "tail_bp": null, "term": "30-Year", "mean12_btc": "2.42", "mean12_dealer_share": "10.28", "mean12_indirect_share": "67.98", "history_n": 12}, "weight": 3.0, "cusip": "912810UW6", "term": "29-Year 10-Month", "term_family": "30-Year", "offering_amount": "22000000000.00", "tail_entered": false}, "explainer": {"title": "Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours", "date": "2026-03-29", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/why-the-treasurys-nightmare-may-soon"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-11-06T14:15:00", "stated_by": "project", "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "reading_rule": null, "cite": {"title": "What I'm Watching This Week", "date": "2026-07-06", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-im-watching-this-week-9a4"}, "rationale": "he names the internals (indirect bid first, then tail, then bid-to-cover) but gives no numbers; bands are relative to the trailing twelve auctions of the same term", "scoring": {"calm": "btc >= mean12(btc) - 0.10 and dealer_share <= mean12(dealer_share) + 5 and indirect_share >= mean12(indirect_share) - 5", "watch": "otherwise", "stress": "btc < 2.0 or dealer_share >= 30", "breach": "dealer_share >= 50 or (tail_bp is not null and tail_bp >= 3 and term in ['10-Year','30-Year'])"}, "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-10-07", "from": "watch", "to": "calm", "value": "2.770000", "note": "9-Year 10-Month auction on 7 Oct 2026: bid-to-cover 2.77× vs 2.51× trailing-12 mean; dealers 2.5 %, indirects 80.3 %; high yield 5.300 %; tail not computed."}, {"on": "2026-09-23", "from": "calm", "to": "watch", "value": "2.210000", "note": "5-Year auction on 23 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.21× vs 2.34× trailing-12 mean; dealers 15.8 %, indirects 54.3 %; high yield 5.033 %; tail not computed."}, {"on": "2026-09-22", "from": "watch", "to": "calm", "value": "2.630000", "note": "2-Year auction on 22 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.63× vs 2.61× trailing-12 mean; dealers 13.2 %, indirects 57.8 %; high yield 4.787 %; tail not computed."}, {"on": "2026-09-15", "from": "tracking", "to": "watch", "value": "2.570000", "note": "19-Year 11-Month auction on 15 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.57× vs 2.64× trailing-12 mean; dealers 16.9 %, indirects 52.5 %; high yield 5.420 %; tail not computed."}, {"on": "2026-09-15", "from": null, "to": "tracking", "value": "2.570000", "note": "19-Year 11-Month auction on 15 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.57× vs — trailing-12 mean; dealers 16.9 %, indirects 52.5 %; high yield 5.420 %; tail not computed."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-15", "state": "watch", "value": "2.570"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-22", "state": "calm", "value": "2.630"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-23", "state": "watch", "value": "2.210"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-24", "state": "watch", "value": "2.420"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-06", "state": "watch", "value": "2.620"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-07", "state": "calm", "value": "2.770"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-08", "state": "calm", "value": "2.540"}]}