{"id": "buyback_result", "framework": "supply", "framework_title": "Treasury supply", "title": "Latest buyback operation", "kind": "event", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "ratio", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "watch", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-09-17", "as_of": "2026-09-17", "value": "2.44", "value_display": "2.4× oversubscribed", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "7Y to 10Y buyback on 17 Sep 2026: $9.74 B offered against a $4.0 B cap (2.4× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $2.39 B (−$1.62 B vs the cap).", "provenance": {"event": {"table": "buyback_operations", "id": "2026-09-17|0140PM|7Y_to_10Y", "operation_date": "2026-09-17", "bucket": "7Y to 10Y", "type": "Liquidity Support", "url": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v1/accounting/od/buybacks_operations?filter=operation_date:eq:2026-09-17", "results_xml": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2026/BBR_20260917174000.xml", "snapshot": "sha256:a533a56467d7b33ddef1474c08be04f8e997bac2066df6ff61a8657b7194fd3e", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:50:32"}, "scoring": {"calm": "offered / cap >= 5 and accepted >= cap", "watch": "otherwise", "stress": "offered / cap < 2", "breach": "offered < cap"}, "stated_by": "project", "rationale": "his 2026-09-08 reference was 7.9–15.3× oversubscribed with 100 % of the cap taken; 5× keeps 'calm' well inside that; undersubscription would mean sellers did not show up", "explainer": {"title": "Did the US Treasury Just Blink?", "date": "2026-08-23", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/did-the-us-treasury-just-blink"}}, "extras": {"event": {"cap": "4000000000.00", "offered": "9740000000.00", "accepted": "2385000000.00", "oversubscription": "2.44", "cap_taken_pct": "59.6", "intent_vs_cap": "-1615000000.00"}, "operation_id": "2026-09-17|0140PM|7Y_to_10Y", "bucket": "7Y to 10Y", "operation_type": "Liquidity Support", "long_end": false, "long_end_ops_all": 53, "under_cap_count_all": 3, "under_cap_dates": ["2025-11-20", "2026-03-19", "2026-09-10"], "buyback_intent": "accepted - cap"}, "explainer": {"title": "Did the US Treasury Just Blink?", "date": "2026-08-23", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/did-the-us-treasury-just-blink"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-09-23T14:05:00", "stated_by": "project", "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "cite": {"title": "The Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion", "date": "2026-09-08", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-monday-brief-four-days-and-119"}, "rationale": "his 2026-09-08 reference was 7.9–15.3× oversubscribed with 100 % of the cap taken; 5× keeps 'calm' well inside that; undersubscription would mean sellers did not show up", "scoring": {"calm": "offered / cap >= 5 and accepted >= cap", "watch": "otherwise", "stress": "offered / cap < 2", "breach": "offered < cap"}, "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-09-17", "from": "unknown", "to": "watch", "value": "2.440000", "note": "7Y to 10Y buyback on 17 Sep 2026: $9.74 B offered against a $4.0 B cap (2.4× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $2.39 B (−$1.62 B vs the cap)."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-17", "state": "watch", "value": "2.44"}]}