{"id": "deficit_pct_gdp_ttm", "framework": "sixpct", "framework_title": "6 Percent Club", "title": "Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months", "kind": "level", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "unit": "pct", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": " %", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "watch", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "value": "5.441343", "value_display": "5.4 %", "delta_value": "-0.547911", "delta_display": "−0.5 %", "delta_period": "1m", "threshold_hit": {"state": "watch", "op": ">=", "value": 3.8, "rule": null, "stated_by": "cited", "cite": {"key": "six_pct_club", "title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "attributed_to": "50-year average (OMB Historical Tables)"}, "thresholds": [{"state": "watch", "op": ">=", "value": 3.8, "rule": null, "stated_by": "cited", "cite": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "attributed_to": "50-year average (OMB Historical Tables)", "quote": null, "rationale": null, "hold_obs": null}, {"state": "stress", "op": ">=", "value": 6.0, "rule": null, "stated_by": "lavish", "cite": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": "Welcome to the 6% Club.", "rationale": null, "hold_obs": null}, {"state": "breach", "op": ">=", "value": 9.0, "rule": null, "stated_by": "lavish", "cite": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": "where do we end up after the next recession? 10%? 12%?", "rationale": null, "hold_obs": null}], "what_moved": "Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 5.4 %, 0.6 pp below Lavish's 6.0 % stress line.", "provenance": {"value_source": {"series": "deficit_pct_gdp_ttm", "date": "2026-08-31", "value": "5.441343", "url": "derived:deficit_ttm / (align(gdp_nominal, ffill_within=240d) * 1e9) * 100", "snapshot": null, "fetched_at": null, "vintage": "derived"}, "transform": "deficit_ttm / (align(gdp_nominal, ffill_within=240d) * 1e9) * 100", "inputs": {"mts_deficit_m": {"series": "mts_deficit_m", "date": "2026-08-31", "value": "166796952277.380000", "url": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1?filter=record_date:eq:2026-08-31,classification_desc:eq:August", "snapshot": "sha256:48dcf84b30901357ad41d4776e50c52eef61c77b4e699a8055bd3f6f6406201f", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:50:21", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145021.661856:48dcf84b3090"}, "gdp_nominal": {"series": "gdp_nominal", "date": "2026-04-01", "value": "32486.066000", "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il0sWyJOSVBBX1RhYmxlX0xpc3QiLCI1Il1dfQ==", "snapshot": "sha256:be2c912e305506b537871fc30e82a7b0b15c7ebe169e35df63c70c693dac9365", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:56:11", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145611.654424:be2c912e3055"}}, "explainer": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}}, "extras": {"nearest_threshold": {"state": "stress", "value": 6.0, "stated_by": "lavish"}, "delta_from": "2026-07-31", "stale": false}, "explainer": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "references": [{"label": "Dalio target", "value": 3.0, "cite": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "quote": null, "stated_by": null}, {"label": "CBO 2036", 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8.059225}, {"d": "2023-08-31", "v": 6.959124}, {"d": "2023-09-30", "v": 6.037689}, {"d": "2023-10-31", "v": 5.888669}, {"d": "2023-11-30", "v": 6.119021}, {"d": "2023-12-31", "v": 6.275099}, {"d": "2024-01-31", "v": 6.154438}, {"d": "2024-02-29", "v": 6.272317}, {"d": "2024-03-31", "v": 5.77901}, {"d": "2024-04-30", "v": 5.577577}, {"d": "2024-05-31", "v": 5.943936}, {"d": "2024-06-30", "v": 5.388809}, {"d": "2024-07-31", "v": 5.400026}, {"d": "2024-08-31", "v": 6.990366}, {"d": "2024-09-30", "v": 6.19324}, {"d": "2024-10-31", "v": 6.768156}, {"d": "2024-11-30", "v": 6.945024}, {"d": "2024-12-31", "v": 6.802078}, {"d": "2025-01-31", "v": 7.108162}, {"d": "2025-02-28", "v": 7.14392}, {"d": "2025-03-31", "v": 6.891187}, {"d": "2025-04-30", "v": 6.630602}, {"d": "2025-05-31", "v": 6.528498}, {"d": "2025-06-30", "v": 6.223519}, {"d": "2025-07-31", "v": 6.253408}, {"d": "2025-08-31", "v": 6.139933}, {"d": "2025-09-30", "v": 5.710045}, {"d": "2025-10-31", "v": 5.736684}, {"d": "2025-11-30", "v": 5.120929}, {"d": "2025-12-31", "v": 5.305566}, {"d": "2026-01-31", "v": 5.124999}, {"d": "2026-02-28", "v": 5.126519}, {"d": "2026-03-31", "v": 5.137722}, {"d": "2026-04-30", "v": 5.173135}, {"d": "2026-05-31", "v": 5.101241}, {"d": "2026-06-30", "v": 5.554714}, {"d": "2026-07-31", "v": 5.989254}, {"d": "2026-08-31", "v": 5.441343}], "sparkline_days": 1825, "computed_at": "2026-09-22T17:16:22", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "history": [{"d": "2021-09-30", "v": 11.559185}, {"d": "2021-10-31", "v": 10.692332}, {"d": "2021-11-30", "v": 10.877991}, {"d": "2021-12-31", "v": 10.385281}, {"d": "2022-01-31", "v": 9.09069}, {"d": "2022-02-28", "v": 8.717102}, {"d": "2022-03-31", "v": 6.867982}, {"d": "2022-04-30", "v": 4.641666}, {"d": "2022-05-31", "v": 4.3875}, {"d": "2022-06-30", "v": 4.05759}, {"d": "2022-07-31", "v": 3.63888}, {"d": "2022-08-31", "v": 3.824789}, {"d": "2022-09-30", "v": 5.222591}, {"d": "2022-10-31", "v": 4.84929}, {"d": "2022-11-30", "v": 5.062957}, {"d": "2022-12-31", "v": 5.300896}, {"d": "2023-01-31", "v": 5.792674}, {"d": "2023-02-28", "v": 5.961116}, {"d": "2023-03-31", "v": 6.6423}, {"d": "2023-04-30", "v": 7.046234}, {"d": "2023-05-31", "v": 7.678727}, {"d": "2023-06-30", "v": 8.183364}, {"d": "2023-07-31", "v": 8.059225}, {"d": "2023-08-31", "v": 6.959124}, {"d": "2023-09-30", "v": 6.037689}, {"d": "2023-10-31", "v": 5.888669}, {"d": "2023-11-30", "v": 6.119021}, {"d": "2023-12-31", "v": 6.275099}, {"d": "2024-01-31", "v": 6.154438}, {"d": "2024-02-29", "v": 6.272317}, {"d": "2024-03-31", "v": 5.77901}, {"d": "2024-04-30", "v": 5.577577}, {"d": "2024-05-31", "v": 5.943936}, {"d": "2024-06-30", "v": 5.388809}, {"d": "2024-07-31", "v": 5.400026}, {"d": "2024-08-31", "v": 6.990366}, {"d": "2024-09-30", "v": 6.19324}, {"d": "2024-10-31", "v": 6.768156}, {"d": "2024-11-30", "v": 6.945024}, {"d": "2024-12-31", "v": 6.802078}, {"d": "2025-01-31", "v": 7.108162}, {"d": "2025-02-28", "v": 7.14392}, {"d": "2025-03-31", "v": 6.891187}, {"d": "2025-04-30", "v": 6.630602}, {"d": "2025-05-31", "v": 6.528498}, {"d": "2025-06-30", "v": 6.223519}, {"d": "2025-07-31", "v": 6.253408}, {"d": "2025-08-31", "v": 6.139933}, {"d": "2025-09-30", "v": 5.710045}, {"d": "2025-10-31", "v": 5.736684}, {"d": "2025-11-30", "v": 5.120929}, {"d": "2025-12-31", "v": 5.305566}, {"d": "2026-01-31", "v": 5.124999}, {"d": "2026-02-28", "v": 5.126519}, {"d": "2026-03-31", "v": 5.137722}, {"d": "2026-04-30", "v": 5.173135}, {"d": "2026-05-31", "v": 5.101241}, {"d": "2026-06-30", "v": 5.554714}, {"d": "2026-07-31", "v": 5.989254}, {"d": "2026-08-31", "v": 5.441343}], "history_series": "deficit_pct_gdp_ttm", "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-08-31", "from": "unknown", "to": "watch", "value": "5.441343", "note": "Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 5.4 %, 0.6 pp below Lavish's 6.0 % stress line."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-08-31", "state": "watch", "value": "5.441343"}]}