{"id": "doors_verdict", "framework": "doors", "framework_title": "Four Doors", "title": "Which door is open", "kind": "doors", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "count", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "calm", "previous_state": "stress", "state_changed_on": "2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-06", "value": null, "value_display": "Door 4 not evidenced", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "Door 4 not evidenced this week: Buyback capacity this quarter change versus prior quarter: −$32.3 B (tracking); Fed balance sheet, 13-week change: −$422 M (calm).", "provenance": {"doors": {"austerity": {"stated_by": "project", "cite": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "rationale": "operationalises his 75 %/87 %/>100 % mandatory-plus-interest argument: outlays still growing while interest eats receipts", "rule": "outlays_growth_yoy_ttm.value > 0 and interest_pct_receipts.state in [watch, stress, breach]", "result": true, "status": "locked", "evidence": {"interest_pct_receipts": {"value": "19.465369", "state": "watch", "title": "Net interest as share of receipts", "as_of": "2026-09-30", "delta": "-0.090537", "uses_delta": false, "display": "19.5 %"}, "outlays_growth_yoy_ttm": {"value": "5.497865", "state": "tracking", "title": "Outlays growth, trailing 12 months", "as_of": "2026-09-30", "delta": "5.095044", "uses_delta": false, "display": "+5.5 %"}}}, "taxes": {"stated_by": "cited", "cite": {"title": "Why Can't You Get Ahead", "date": "2026-01-11", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/why-cant-you-get-ahead-and-how-to"}, "attributed_to": "Hauser's Law", "rule": "receipts_pct_gdp_ttm.state == calm", "result": true, "status": "locked", "evidence": {"receipts_pct_gdp_ttm": {"value": "16.368377", "state": "calm", "title": "Receipts as share of GDP", "as_of": "2026-09-30", "delta": "-0.419703", "uses_delta": false, "display": "16.4 %"}}}, "default": {"stated_by": "lavish", "cite": {"title": "Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter?", "date": "2026-02-01", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even"}, "quote": "doesn't exist", "static": "locked", "status": "locked", "result": null}, "debasement": {"stated_by": "project", "cite": {"title": "Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter?", "date": "2026-02-01", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even"}, "rationale": "his Door 4 is long-end balance-sheet expansion; a growing Fed book or a growing Treasury bid is the observable", "rule": "fed_assets_13w_change.value > 0 or buyback_quarter_capacity.delta > 0", "result": false, "status": "locked", "evidence": {"buyback_quarter_capacity": {"value": "38750000000.00", "state": "tracking", "title": "Buyback capacity this quarter", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "delta": "-32250000000.00", "uses_delta": true, "display": "−$32.3 B"}, "fed_assets_13w_change": {"value": "-422000000.000000", "state": "calm", "title": "Fed balance sheet, 13-week change", "as_of": "2026-11-04", "delta": "-7867000000.000000", "uses_delta": false, "display": "−$422 M"}}}}, "verdict_rules": {"open": "debasement and (austerity or taxes)", "ajar": "debasement", "never_print": "all closed"}, "explainer": {"title": "Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter?", "date": "2026-02-01", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even"}}, "extras": {"verdict": "other", "doors": {"austerity": "locked", "taxes": "locked", "default": "locked", "debasement": "locked"}}, "explainer": {"title": "Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter?", "date": "2026-02-01", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-11-06T14:15:00", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "reading_rule": null, "doors_rules": {"austerity": {"stated_by": "project", "cite": {"title": "The Dubious 6% Club", "date": "2026-02-22", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/the-dubious-6-club"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "operationalises his 75 %/87 %/>100 % mandatory-plus-interest argument: outlays still growing while interest eats receipts", "rule": "outlays_growth_yoy_ttm.value > 0 and interest_pct_receipts.state in [watch, stress, breach]", "static": null, "locked_when": true, "open_when": null}, "taxes": {"stated_by": "cited", "cite": {"title": "Why Can't You Get Ahead", "date": "2026-01-11", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/why-cant-you-get-ahead-and-how-to"}, "attributed_to": "Hauser's Law", "quote": null, "rationale": null, "rule": "receipts_pct_gdp_ttm.state == calm", "static": null, "locked_when": true, "open_when": null}, "default": {"stated_by": "lavish", "cite": {"title": "Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter?", "date": "2026-02-01", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": "doesn't exist", "rationale": null, "rule": null, "static": "locked", "locked_when": null, "open_when": null}, "debasement": {"stated_by": "project", "cite": {"title": "Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter?", "date": "2026-02-01", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "his Door 4 is long-end balance-sheet expansion; a growing Fed book or a growing Treasury bid is the observable", "rule": "fed_assets_13w_change.value > 0 or buyback_quarter_capacity.delta > 0", "static": null, "locked_when": null, "open_when": true}}, "verdict_rules": {"open": "debasement and (austerity or taxes)", "ajar": "debasement", "never_print": "all closed"}, "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-11-05", "from": "stress", "to": "calm", "value": null, "note": "Door 4 not evidenced this week: Buyback capacity this quarter change versus prior quarter: −$32.3 B (tracking); Fed balance sheet, 13-week change: −$422 M (calm)."}, {"on": "2026-09-22", "from": "unknown", "to": "stress", "value": null, "note": "Door 4 open: fed_assets_13w_change +$10 B (calm); buyback_quarter_capacity +$67 B (tracking); doors austerity, taxes locked."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-16", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-18", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-22", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-23", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-24", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-25", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-26", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-27", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-28", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-29", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-30", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-01", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-02", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-04", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-05", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-06", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-07", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-08", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-09", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-10", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-11", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-12", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-13", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-14", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-15", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-16", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-17", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-18", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-19", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-20", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-21", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-22", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-23", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-24", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-25", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-26", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-27", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-28", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-29", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-30", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-31", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-01", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-02", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-03", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-04", "state": "stress", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-05", "state": "calm", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-06", "state": "calm", "value": null}]}