{"id": "fed_assets_13w_change", "framework": "doors", "framework_title": "Four Doors", "title": "Fed balance sheet, 13-week change", "kind": "level", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "unit": "usd", "display": {"decimals": 0, "suffix": "", "format": "money_b", "signed": true}, "state": "calm", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-09-16", "as_of": "2026-09-16", "value": "10124000000.000000", "value_display": "+$10 B", "delta_value": "-5098000000.000000", "delta_display": "−$5 B", "delta_period": "1w", "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [{"state": "watch", "op": ">=", "value": 50000000000.0, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": null, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "expansion beyond reserve-management noise", "hold_obs": null}, {"state": "stress", "op": ">=", "value": 150000000000.0, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": null, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "≈ $50B/month, QE-scale", "hold_obs": null}], "what_moved": "Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $5 B over the week to +$10 B, $40 B below the project's $50 B watch line.", "provenance": {"value_source": {"series": "fed_assets_13w_change", "date": "2026-09-16", "value": "10124000000.000000", "url": "derived:(fed_assets - lag(fed_assets, 91d)) * 1e6", "snapshot": null, "fetched_at": null, "vintage": "derived"}, "transform": "(fed_assets - lag(fed_assets, 91d)) * 1e6", "inputs": {"fed_assets": {"series": "fed_assets", "date": "2026-09-16", "value": "6746548.000000", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20260917/", "snapshot": "sha256:4416b07c4454b52acd76d37f7ec3e3f40336604a108958d737fa69e488d437ee", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:56:00", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145600.716782:4416b07c4454"}}, "explainer": {"title": "How to Read a Fed That Stopped Talking", "date": "2026-06-21", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/how-to-read-a-fed-that-stopped-talking"}}, "extras": {"nearest_threshold": {"state": "watch", "value": 50000000000.0, "stated_by": "project"}, "delta_from": "2026-09-09", "stale": false}, "explainer": {"title": "How to Read a Fed That Stopped Talking", "date": "2026-06-21", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/how-to-read-a-fed-that-stopped-talking"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [{"d": "2024-09-25", "v": -151104000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-02", "v": -174595000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-09", "v": -177239000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-16", "v": -168963000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-23", "v": -176047000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-30", "v": -164901000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-06", "v": -180957000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-13", "v": -210580000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-20", "v": -216221000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-27", "v": -218098000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-04", "v": -216740000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-11", "v": -217516000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-18", "v": -219805000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-25", "v": -194096000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-01", "v": -194434000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-08", "v": -193286000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-15", "v": -205214000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-22", "v": -197648000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-29", "v": -195304000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-05", "v": -183364000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-12", "v": -153595000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-19", "v": -141399000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-26", "v": -139039000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-05", "v": -139063000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-12", "v": -137914000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-19", "v": -133350000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-26", "v": -145710000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-02", "v": -129039000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-09", "v": -126138000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-16", "v": -106957000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-23", "v": -104830000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-30", "v": -108909000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-07", "v": -100046000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-14", "v": -100243000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-21", "v": -93606000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-28", "v": -92857000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-04", "v": -83879000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-11", "v": -82416000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-18", "v": -74926000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-25", "v": -78053000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-02", "v": -63854000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-09", "v": -65504000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-16", "v": -67840000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-23", "v": -69215000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-30", "v": -66699000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-06", "v": -70046000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-13", "v": -69655000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-20", "v": -70311000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-27", "v": -69860000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-03", "v": -70814000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-10", "v": -71193000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-17", "v": -72459000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-24", "v": -53805000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-01", "v": -72479000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-08", "v": -71097000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-15", "v": -62819000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-22", "v": -68182000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-29", "v": -55544000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-05", "v": -68111000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-12", "v": -63153000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-19", "v": -63132000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-26", "v": -50965000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-03", "v": -66290000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-10", "v": -66659000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-17", "v": -51736000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-24", "v": -27164000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-31", "v": 53499000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-07", "v": -17213000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-14", "v": -14754000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-21", "v": -4953000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-28", "v": 534000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-04", "v": 33177000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-11", "v": 41920000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-18", "v": 58112000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-25", "v": 61378000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-04", "v": 93113000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-11", "v": 107041000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-18", "v": 99078000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-25", "v": 75930000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-01", "v": 34726000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-08", "v": 120269000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-15", "v": 123996000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-22", "v": 122839000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-29", "v": 112382000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-06", "v": 103596000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-13", "v": 106120000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-20", "v": 100248000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-27", "v": 90586000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-03", "v": 82601000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-10", "v": 79053000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-17", "v": 80485000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-24", "v": 78484000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-01", "v": 49220000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-08", "v": 41738000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-15", "v": 37332000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-22", "v": 39959000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-29", "v": 38240000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-05", "v": 39062000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-12", "v": 31453000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-19", "v": 32056000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-26", "v": 26529000000.0}, {"d": "2026-09-02", "v": 25709000000.0}, {"d": "2026-09-09", "v": 15222000000.0}, {"d": "2026-09-16", "v": 10124000000.0}], "sparkline_days": 730, "computed_at": "2026-09-23T14:05:00", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "history": [{"d": "2021-09-29", "v": 369437000000.0}, {"d": "2021-10-06", "v": 366259000000.0}, {"d": "2021-10-13", "v": 279291000000.0}, {"d": "2021-10-20", "v": 324413000000.0}, {"d": "2021-10-27", "v": 334708000000.0}, {"d": "2021-11-03", "v": 339798000000.0}, {"d": "2021-11-10", "v": 405958000000.0}, {"d": "2021-11-17", "v": 332372000000.0}, {"d": "2021-11-24", "v": 349028000000.0}, {"d": "2021-12-01", "v": 301229000000.0}, {"d": "2021-12-08", "v": 307210000000.0}, {"d": "2021-12-15", "v": 307896000000.0}, {"d": "2021-12-22", "v": 300671000000.0}, {"d": "2021-12-29", "v": 309479000000.0}, {"d": "2022-01-05", "v": 301689000000.0}, {"d": "2022-01-12", "v": 307336000000.0}, {"d": "2022-01-19", "v": 302891000000.0}, {"d": "2022-01-26", "v": 304304000000.0}, {"d": "2022-02-02", "v": 298340000000.0}, {"d": "2022-02-09", "v": 214892000000.0}, {"d": "2022-02-16", "v": 236063000000.0}, {"d": "2022-02-23", "v": 246358000000.0}, {"d": "2022-03-02", "v": 254053000000.0}, {"d": "2022-03-09", "v": 246224000000.0}, {"d": "2022-03-16", "v": 197640000000.0}, {"d": "2022-03-23", "v": 171979000000.0}, {"d": "2022-03-30", "v": 179682000000.0}, {"d": "2022-04-06", "v": 171871000000.0}, {"d": "2022-04-13", "v": 177209000000.0}, {"d": "2022-04-20", "v": 88017000000.0}, {"d": "2022-04-27", "v": 78714000000.0}, {"d": "2022-05-04", "v": 66761000000.0}, {"d": "2022-05-11", "v": 63999000000.0}, {"d": "2022-05-18", "v": 34865000000.0}, {"d": "2022-05-25", "v": -13848000000.0}, {"d": "2022-06-01", "v": 10595000000.0}, {"d": "2022-06-08", "v": 7506000000.0}, {"d": "2022-06-15", "v": -21886000000.0}, {"d": "2022-06-22", "v": -28128000000.0}, {"d": "2022-06-29", "v": -23589000000.0}, {"d": "2022-07-06", "v": -45741000000.0}, {"d": "2022-07-13", "v": -69620000000.0}, {"d": "2022-07-20", "v": -56638000000.0}, {"d": "2022-07-27", "v": -49195000000.0}, {"d": "2022-08-03", "v": -65352000000.0}, {"d": "2022-08-10", "v": -62870000000.0}, {"d": "2022-08-17", "v": -96136000000.0}, {"d": "2022-08-24", "v": -62845000000.0}, {"d": "2022-08-31", "v": -88957000000.0}, {"d": "2022-09-07", "v": -95853000000.0}, {"d": "2022-09-14", "v": -99661000000.0}, {"d": "2022-09-21", "v": -117544000000.0}, {"d": "2022-09-28", "v": -117986000000.0}, {"d": "2022-10-05", "v": -132798000000.0}, {"d": "2022-10-12", "v": -136898000000.0}, {"d": "2022-10-19", "v": -155291000000.0}, {"d": "2022-10-26", "v": -166914000000.0}, {"d": "2022-11-02", "v": -197750000000.0}, {"d": "2022-11-09", "v": -200252000000.0}, {"d": "2022-11-16", "v": -224142000000.0}, {"d": "2022-11-23", "v": -230046000000.0}, {"d": "2022-11-30", "v": -241517000000.0}, {"d": "2022-12-07", "v": -239666000000.0}, {"d": "2022-12-14", "v": -249346000000.0}, {"d": "2022-12-21", "v": -252391000000.0}, {"d": "2022-12-28", "v": -244398000000.0}, {"d": "2023-01-04", "v": -251624000000.0}, {"d": "2023-01-11", "v": -250382000000.0}, {"d": "2023-01-18", "v": -254883000000.0}, {"d": "2023-01-25", "v": -252533000000.0}, {"d": "2023-02-01", "v": -243260000000.0}, {"d": "2023-02-08", "v": -243517000000.0}, {"d": "2023-02-15", "v": -240853000000.0}, {"d": "2023-02-22", "v": -239200000000.0}, {"d": "2023-03-01", "v": -244892000000.0}, {"d": "2023-03-08", "v": -240452000000.0}, {"d": "2023-03-15", "v": 55887000000.0}, {"d": "2023-03-22", "v": 169376000000.0}, {"d": "2023-03-29", "v": 154773000000.0}, {"d": "2023-04-05", "v": 124955000000.0}, {"d": "2023-04-12", "v": 106210000000.0}, {"d": "2023-04-19", "v": 104224000000.0}, {"d": "2023-04-26", "v": 92211000000.0}, {"d": "2023-05-03", "v": 70384000000.0}, {"d": "2023-05-10", "v": 67648000000.0}, {"d": "2023-05-17", "v": 71993000000.0}, {"d": "2023-05-24", "v": 54065000000.0}, {"d": "2023-05-31", "v": 46170000000.0}, {"d": "2023-06-07", "v": 47042000000.0}, {"d": "2023-06-14", "v": -250977000000.0}, {"d": "2023-06-21", "v": -371727000000.0}, {"d": "2023-06-28", "v": -365028000000.0}, {"d": "2023-07-05", "v": -334072000000.0}, {"d": "2023-07-12", "v": -317874000000.0}, {"d": "2023-07-19", "v": -318711000000.0}, {"d": "2023-07-26", "v": -319424000000.0}, {"d": "2023-08-02", "v": -297230000000.0}, {"d": "2023-08-09", "v": -294776000000.0}, {"d": "2023-08-16", "v": -311033000000.0}, {"d": "2023-08-23", "v": -297189000000.0}, {"d": "2023-08-30", "v": -264538000000.0}, {"d": "2023-09-06", "v": -288007000000.0}, {"d": "2023-09-13", "v": -289544000000.0}, {"d": "2023-09-20", "v": -337970000000.0}, {"d": "2023-09-27", "v": -338850000000.0}, {"d": "2023-10-04", "v": -342530000000.0}, {"d": "2023-10-11", "v": -344869000000.0}, {"d": "2023-10-18", "v": -341390000000.0}, {"d": "2023-10-25", "v": -335514000000.0}, {"d": "2023-11-01", "v": -340100000000.0}, {"d": "2023-11-08", "v": -347550000000.0}, {"d": "2023-11-15", "v": -330736000000.0}, {"d": "2023-11-22", "v": -328252000000.0}, {"d": "2023-11-29", "v": -325171000000.0}, {"d": "2023-12-06", "v": -363933000000.0}, {"d": "2023-12-13", "v": -359213000000.0}, {"d": "2023-12-20", "v": -300027000000.0}, {"d": "2023-12-27", "v": -289283000000.0}, {"d": "2024-01-03", "v": -274758000000.0}, {"d": "2024-01-10", "v": -265344000000.0}, {"d": "2024-01-17", "v": -259421000000.0}, {"d": "2024-01-24", "v": -230600000000.0}, {"d": "2024-01-31", "v": -236540000000.0}, {"d": "2024-02-07", "v": -229391000000.0}, {"d": "2024-02-14", "v": -181117000000.0}, {"d": "2024-02-21", "v": -229131000000.0}, {"d": "2024-02-28", "v": -228338000000.0}, {"d": "2024-03-06", "v": -198528000000.0}, {"d": "2024-03-13", "v": -197597000000.0}, {"d": "2024-03-20", "v": -209715000000.0}, {"d": "2024-03-27", "v": -228042000000.0}, {"d": "2024-04-03", "v": -241466000000.0}, {"d": "2024-04-10", "v": -248534000000.0}, {"d": "2024-04-17", "v": -268235000000.0}, {"d": "2024-04-24", "v": -274796000000.0}, {"d": "2024-05-01", "v": -267650000000.0}, {"d": "2024-05-08", "v": -277892000000.0}, {"d": "2024-05-15", "v": -329602000000.0}, {"d": "2024-05-22", "v": -282117000000.0}, {"d": "2024-05-29", "v": -283488000000.0}, {"d": "2024-06-05", "v": -283170000000.0}, {"d": "2024-06-12", "v": -282995000000.0}, {"d": "2024-06-19", "v": -261806000000.0}, {"d": "2024-06-26", "v": -253576000000.0}, {"d": "2024-07-03", "v": -218038000000.0}, {"d": "2024-07-10", "v": -214097000000.0}, {"d": "2024-07-17", "v": -197259000000.0}, {"d": "2024-07-24", "v": -196979000000.0}, {"d": "2024-07-31", "v": -184083000000.0}, {"d": "2024-08-07", "v": -178152000000.0}, {"d": "2024-08-14", "v": -126584000000.0}, {"d": "2024-08-21", "v": -159614000000.0}, {"d": "2024-08-28", "v": -161081000000.0}, {"d": "2024-09-04", "v": -143120000000.0}, {"d": "2024-09-11", "v": -143973000000.0}, {"d": "2024-09-18", "v": -143405000000.0}, {"d": "2024-09-25", "v": -151104000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-02", "v": -174595000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-09", "v": -177239000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-16", "v": -168963000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-23", "v": -176047000000.0}, {"d": "2024-10-30", "v": -164901000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-06", "v": -180957000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-13", "v": -210580000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-20", "v": -216221000000.0}, {"d": "2024-11-27", "v": -218098000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-04", "v": -216740000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-11", "v": -217516000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-18", "v": -219805000000.0}, {"d": "2024-12-25", "v": -194096000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-01", "v": -194434000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-08", "v": -193286000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-15", "v": -205214000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-22", "v": -197648000000.0}, {"d": "2025-01-29", "v": -195304000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-05", "v": -183364000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-12", "v": -153595000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-19", "v": -141399000000.0}, {"d": "2025-02-26", "v": -139039000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-05", "v": -139063000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-12", "v": -137914000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-19", "v": -133350000000.0}, {"d": "2025-03-26", "v": -145710000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-02", "v": -129039000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-09", "v": -126138000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-16", "v": -106957000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-23", "v": -104830000000.0}, {"d": "2025-04-30", "v": -108909000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-07", "v": -100046000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-14", "v": -100243000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-21", "v": -93606000000.0}, {"d": "2025-05-28", "v": -92857000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-04", "v": -83879000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-11", "v": -82416000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-18", "v": -74926000000.0}, {"d": "2025-06-25", "v": -78053000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-02", "v": -63854000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-09", "v": -65504000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-16", "v": -67840000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-23", "v": -69215000000.0}, {"d": "2025-07-30", "v": -66699000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-06", "v": -70046000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-13", "v": -69655000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-20", "v": -70311000000.0}, {"d": "2025-08-27", "v": -69860000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-03", "v": -70814000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-10", "v": -71193000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-17", "v": -72459000000.0}, {"d": "2025-09-24", "v": -53805000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-01", "v": -72479000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-08", "v": -71097000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-15", "v": -62819000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-22", "v": -68182000000.0}, {"d": "2025-10-29", "v": -55544000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-05", "v": -68111000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-12", "v": -63153000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-19", "v": -63132000000.0}, {"d": "2025-11-26", "v": -50965000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-03", "v": -66290000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-10", "v": -66659000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-17", "v": -51736000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-24", "v": -27164000000.0}, {"d": "2025-12-31", "v": 53499000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-07", "v": -17213000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-14", "v": -14754000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-21", "v": -4953000000.0}, {"d": "2026-01-28", "v": 534000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-04", "v": 33177000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-11", "v": 41920000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-18", "v": 58112000000.0}, {"d": "2026-02-25", "v": 61378000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-04", "v": 93113000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-11", "v": 107041000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-18", "v": 99078000000.0}, {"d": "2026-03-25", "v": 75930000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-01", "v": 34726000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-08", "v": 120269000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-15", "v": 123996000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-22", "v": 122839000000.0}, {"d": "2026-04-29", "v": 112382000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-06", "v": 103596000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-13", "v": 106120000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-20", "v": 100248000000.0}, {"d": "2026-05-27", "v": 90586000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-03", "v": 82601000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-10", "v": 79053000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-17", "v": 80485000000.0}, {"d": "2026-06-24", "v": 78484000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-01", "v": 49220000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-08", "v": 41738000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-15", "v": 37332000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-22", "v": 39959000000.0}, {"d": "2026-07-29", "v": 38240000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-05", "v": 39062000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-12", "v": 31453000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-19", "v": 32056000000.0}, {"d": "2026-08-26", "v": 26529000000.0}, {"d": "2026-09-02", "v": 25709000000.0}, {"d": "2026-09-09", "v": 15222000000.0}, {"d": "2026-09-16", "v": 10124000000.0}], "history_series": "fed_assets_13w_change", "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-09-16", "from": "unknown", "to": "calm", "value": "10124000000.000000", "note": "Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $5 B over the week to +$10 B, $40 B below the project's $50 B watch line."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-16", "state": "calm", "value": "10124000000.000000"}]}