{"id": "fed_last_action", "framework": "trapdoors", "framework_title": "Three Trap Doors", "title": "Last Fed action", "kind": "event", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "bp", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "tracking", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-09-16", "as_of": "2026-09-16", "value": "25", "value_display": "Hike", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "The Fed raised the target range on 16 Sep 2026: +25 bp to 3.75 %–4.00 %, unanimous (FOMC statement).", "provenance": {"value_source": {"series": "fed_target_high_stmt", "date": "2026-09-16", "value": "4.000000", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "snapshot": "sha256:c38d251567fcddffd1ad7175a8c8fb1f97e76a996afda71534658239c5c0b244", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:56:08", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145608.504330:c38d251567fc"}, "explainer": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "effr_after": {"series": "fed_target_high", "date": "2026-09-17", "value": "4.000000", "url": "https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/rates/unsecured/effr/search.json?startDate=2026-09-17&endDate=2026-09-17", "snapshot": "sha256:c559187fcc5fc219fce2b545d3cadf8654d47bc479c879284dd0dd7ea356aa3e", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:55:49", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145549.341876:c559187fcc5f"}, "before": {"series": "fed_target_high", "date": "2026-09-15", "value": "3.750000", "url": "https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/rates/unsecured/effr/search.json?startDate=2026-09-15&endDate=2026-09-15", "snapshot": "sha256:c559187fcc5fc219fce2b545d3cadf8654d47bc479c879284dd0dd7ea356aa3e", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:55:49", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145549.341876:c559187fcc5f"}, "decision_source": "FOMC statement", "decision_date_source": "config/calendar.yaml + FOMC calendar page", "rule": "action = sign(target_high[after] − target_high[before]); after = statement on the decision day, else the first EFFR record dated after it (≤ 5 days); pending otherwise"}, "extras": {"action": "hike", "decision_date": "2026-09-16", "change_bp": "25", "target_low": "3.750000", "target_high": "4.000000", "since_days": 6, "decision_source": "FOMC statement", "cross_check": "match", "dissents": 0, "unanimous": true, "decision_text": "+25 bp to 3.75 %–4.00 %, unanimous"}, "explainer": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-09-22T17:16:22", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-09-16", "from": "unknown", "to": "tracking", "value": "25.000000", "note": "The Fed raised the target range on 16 Sep 2026: +25 bp to 3.75 %–4.00 %, unanimous (FOMC statement)."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-16", "state": "tracking", "value": "25"}]}