{"id": "fed_last_action", "framework": "trapdoors", "framework_title": "Three Trap Doors", "title": "Last Fed action", "kind": "event", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "bp", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "tracking", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-10-28", "as_of": "2026-10-28", "value": "0", "value_display": "Hold", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "The Fed held the target range on 28 Oct 2026: hold at 3.75 %–4.00 %, 2 dissents (FOMC statement).", "provenance": {"value_source": {"series": "fed_target_high_stmt", "date": "2026-10-28", "value": "4.000000", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "snapshot": "sha256:41834997bc3200e5cd7cb849e758114ce5d76aec8b3990fd02243c65fe9b7abb", "fetched_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00", "vintage": "2026-10-28T180500.271526:41834997bc32"}, "explainer": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "effr_after": {"series": "fed_target_high", "date": "2026-10-29", "value": "4.000000", "url": "https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/rates/unsecured/effr/search.json?startDate=2026-10-29&endDate=2026-10-29", "snapshot": "sha256:9d07c7f1feb7afd37762418650a8908c7a6eeabc70665fe887fad604a2388d5d", "fetched_at": "2026-10-30T13:15:01", "vintage": "2026-10-30T131501.256853:9d07c7f1feb7"}, "before": {"series": "fed_target_high", "date": "2026-10-27", "value": "4.000000", "url": "https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/rates/unsecured/effr/search.json?startDate=2026-10-27&endDate=2026-10-27", "snapshot": "sha256:e9b0498e3802a58379e3650086a901493342b702119ef9dfff8421f3c050618c", "fetched_at": "2026-10-28T13:05:41", "vintage": "2026-10-28T130541.703552:e9b0498e3802"}, "decision_source": "FOMC statement", "decision_date_source": "config/calendar.yaml + FOMC calendar page", "rule": "action = sign(target_high[after] − target_high[before]); after = statement on the decision day, else the first EFFR record dated after it (≤ 5 days); pending otherwise"}, "extras": {"action": "hold", "decision_date": "2026-10-28", "change_bp": "0", "target_low": "3.750000", "target_high": "4.000000", "since_days": 9, "decision_source": "FOMC statement", "cross_check": "match", "dissents": 2, "unanimous": false, "decision_text": "hold at 3.75 %–4.00 %, 2 dissents"}, "explainer": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-11-06T14:15:00", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "reading_rule": null, "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-10-28", "from": "tracking", "to": "unknown", "value": null, "note": "Decision on 28 Oct 2026: target range not yet observed after the decision date; action pending."}, {"on": "2026-10-28", "from": "unknown", "to": "tracking", "value": "0.000000", "note": "The Fed held the target range on 28 Oct 2026: hold at 3.75 %–4.00 %, 2 dissents (FOMC statement)."}, {"on": "2026-09-16", "from": "unknown", "to": "tracking", "value": "25.000000", "note": "The Fed raised the target range on 16 Sep 2026: +25 bp to 3.75 %–4.00 %, unanimous (FOMC statement)."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-16", "state": "tracking", "value": "25"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-28", "state": "tracking", "value": "0"}]}