{"id": "growout_verdict", "framework": "growout", "framework_title": "Grow out of it", "title": "Gaining, treading water, or losing?", "kind": "level", "direction": "lower_is_worse", "unit": "pp", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": " pp", "format": null, "signed": true}, "state": "stress", "previous_state": "watch", "state_changed_on": "2026-09-30", "as_of": "2026-09-30", "value": "-0.513375", "value_display": "−0.5 pp", "delta_value": "-1.093944", "delta_display": "−1.1 pp", "delta_period": "1q", "threshold_hit": {"state": "stress", "op": "<=", "value": -0.5, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": {"key": "inst_no1", "title": "The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/"}, "rationale": "losing: the primary deficit outruns the growth-rate gap by more than 0.5 pp of GDP"}, "thresholds": [{"state": "watch", "op": "<=", "value": 0.5, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": {"title": "The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/", "note": "quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "treading water: the growth-rate gap and the primary deficit within ±0.5 pp of GDP of each other; his reading was 'treading water, at best'", "hold_obs": null}, {"state": "stress", "op": "<=", "value": -0.5, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": {"title": "The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/", "note": "quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "losing: the primary deficit outruns the growth-rate gap by more than 0.5 pp of GDP", "hold_obs": null}], "what_moved": "Growth 5.9 % vs rate 3.53 %: a gap of 2.3 pp. Primary deficit 2.8 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). 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