{"id": "qt_to_qe_trigger", "framework": "plumbing", "framework_title": "Fed and Treasury plumbing", "title": "QT-to-QE trigger", "kind": "composite", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "count", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "calm", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-09-21", "as_of": "2026-09-21", "value": "0", "value_display": "Not triggered", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "QT-to-QE trigger: not triggered (rrp_balance stress; reserves_level watch).", "provenance": {"rule": "rrp_balance.value <= 25e9 and reserves_usd.value <= 2.8e12", "stated_by": "lavish", "evidence": {"rrp_balance": {"value": "582000000.000000", "state": "stress", "as_of": "2026-09-21"}, "reserves_level": {"value": "2921536000000.000000", "state": "watch", "as_of": "2026-09-16"}}, "explainer": {"title": "Is The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again)", "date": "2025-01-05", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/is-the-fed-about-to-end-qt-and-start"}, "cite": {"title": "Is The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again)", "date": "2025-01-05", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/is-the-fed-about-to-end-qt-and-start"}}, "extras": {"rule_result": false, "evidence_states": {"rrp_balance": "stress", "reserves_level": "watch"}}, "explainer": {"title": "Is The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again)", "date": "2025-01-05", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/is-the-fed-about-to-end-qt-and-start"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-09-23T14:05:00", "stated_by": "lavish", "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "cite": {"title": "Is The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again)", "date": "2025-01-05", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/is-the-fed-about-to-end-qt-and-start"}, "quote": "once RRP approaches zero and reserves dip below the Fed's $2.8T floor", "rule": "rrp_balance.value <= 25e9 and reserves_usd.value <= 2.8e12", "evidence": ["rrp_balance", "reserves_level"], "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-09-21", "from": "unknown", "to": "calm", "value": "0.000000", "note": "QT-to-QE trigger: not triggered (rrp_balance stress; reserves_level watch)."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-21", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}]}