{"id": "rate_growth_gap", "framework": "growout", "framework_title": "Grow out of it", "title": "Nominal growth minus the rate paid", "kind": "level", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "pp", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": " pp", "format": null, "signed": true}, "state": "tracking", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "value": "3.071552", "value_display": "+3.1 pp", "delta_value": "-0.137000", "delta_display": "−0.1 pp", "delta_period": "1q", "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "Nominal GDP growth 6.6 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.49 %: a gap of +3.1 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output).", "provenance": {"value_source": {"series": "rate_growth_gap", "date": "2026-08-31", "value": "3.071552", "url": "derived:align(gdp_nominal_yoy, ffill_within=240d) - avg_rate_total", "snapshot": null, "fetched_at": null, "vintage": "derived"}, "transform": "align(gdp_nominal_yoy, ffill_within=240d) - avg_rate_total", "inputs": {"avg_rate_total": {"series": "avg_rate_total", "date": "2026-08-31", "value": "3.490000", "url": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/avg_interest_rates?filter=record_date:eq:2026-08-31,security_desc:eq:Total Interest-bearing Debt", "snapshot": "sha256:91f933bff8157bfffa18ed5998980891e24c9c8889068aa8cffae60bf03148fc", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:50:22", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145022.454791:91f933bff815"}, "gdp_nominal": {"series": "gdp_nominal", "date": "2026-04-01", "value": "32486.066000", "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il0sWyJOSVBBX1RhYmxlX0xpc3QiLCI1Il1dfQ==", "snapshot": "sha256:be2c912e305506b537871fc30e82a7b0b15c7ebe169e35df63c70c693dac9365", "fetched_at": "2026-09-22T14:56:11", "vintage": "2026-09-22T145611.654424:be2c912e3055"}}, "explainer": {"title": "The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/", "note": "quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink"}}, "extras": {"nearest_threshold": null, "delta_from": "2026-05-31", "stale": false, "gdp_nominal_yoy": "6.561552", "gdp_nominal_yoy_as_of": "2026-04-01", "real_gdp_yoy": "2.097672", "real_gdp_yoy_as_of": "2026-04-01", "avg_rate_total": "3.490000", "avg_rate_total_as_of": "2026-08-31"}, "explainer": {"title": "The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/", "note": "quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink"}, "references": [{"label": "his reading, Jun 2026", "value": 3.1, "cite": {"title": "The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab", "date": "2026-09-20", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/", "note": "quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink"}, "quote": null, "stated_by": null}], "sparkline": [{"d": "2021-09-30", "v": 8.890283}, {"d": "2021-10-31", "v": 10.752004}, {"d": "2021-11-30", "v": 10.767004}, {"d": "2021-12-31", "v": 10.779004}, {"d": "2022-01-31", "v": 9.773698}, {"d": "2022-02-28", "v": 9.761698}, {"d": "2022-03-31", "v": 9.721698}, {"d": "2022-04-30", "v": 8.737104}, {"d": "2022-05-31", "v": 8.662104}, {"d": "2022-06-30", "v": 8.596104}, {"d": "2022-07-31", "v": 7.931227}, {"d": "2022-08-31", "v": 7.844227}, {"d": "2022-09-30", "v": 7.745227}, {"d": "2022-10-31", "v": 5.700457}, {"d": "2022-11-30", "v": 5.669457}, {"d": "2022-12-31", "v": 5.524457}, {"d": "2023-01-31", "v": 5.33142}, {"d": "2023-02-28", "v": 5.26942}, {"d": "2023-03-31", "v": 5.22042}, {"d": "2023-04-30", "v": 3.867744}, {"d": "2023-05-31", "v": 3.785744}, {"d": "2023-06-30", "v": 3.691744}, {"d": "2023-07-31", "v": 3.760314}, {"d": "2023-08-31", "v": 3.680314}, {"d": "2023-09-30", "v": 3.631314}, {"d": "2023-10-31", "v": 3.127216}, {"d": "2023-11-30", "v": 3.076216}, {"d": "2023-12-31", "v": 3.066216}, {"d": "2024-01-31", "v": 2.327936}, {"d": "2024-02-29", "v": 2.285936}, {"d": "2024-03-31", "v": 2.264936}, {"d": "2024-04-30", "v": 2.639541}, {"d": "2024-05-31", "v": 2.607541}, {"d": "2024-06-30", "v": 2.592541}, {"d": "2024-07-31", "v": 1.786813}, {"d": "2024-08-31", "v": 1.769813}, {"d": "2024-09-30", "v": 1.793813}, {"d": "2024-10-31", "v": 1.624908}, {"d": "2024-11-30", "v": 1.628908}, {"d": "2024-12-31", "v": 1.646908}, {"d": "2025-01-31", "v": 1.364595}, {"d": "2025-02-28", "v": 1.364595}, {"d": "2025-03-31", "v": 1.362595}, {"d": "2025-04-30", "v": 1.303867}, {"d": "2025-05-31", "v": 1.298867}, {"d": "2025-06-30", "v": 1.288867}, {"d": "2025-07-31", "v": 2.023376}, {"d": "2025-08-31", "v": 2.003376}, {"d": "2025-09-30", "v": 2.012376}, {"d": "2025-10-31", "v": 2.000689}, {"d": "2025-11-30", "v": 2.007689}, {"d": "2025-12-31", "v": 2.031689}, {"d": "2026-01-31", "v": 2.754172}, {"d": "2026-02-28", "v": 2.750172}, {"d": "2026-03-31", "v": 2.743172}, {"d": "2026-04-30", "v": 3.221552}, {"d": "2026-05-31", "v": 3.208552}, {"d": "2026-06-30", "v": 3.152552}, {"d": "2026-07-31", "v": 3.114552}, {"d": "2026-08-31", "v": 3.071552}], "sparkline_days": 1825, "computed_at": "2026-09-22T17:16:22", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "history": [{"d": "2021-09-30", "v": 8.890283}, {"d": "2021-10-31", "v": 10.752004}, {"d": "2021-11-30", "v": 10.767004}, {"d": "2021-12-31", "v": 10.779004}, {"d": "2022-01-31", "v": 9.773698}, {"d": "2022-02-28", "v": 9.761698}, {"d": "2022-03-31", "v": 9.721698}, {"d": "2022-04-30", "v": 8.737104}, {"d": "2022-05-31", "v": 8.662104}, {"d": "2022-06-30", "v": 8.596104}, {"d": "2022-07-31", "v": 7.931227}, {"d": "2022-08-31", "v": 7.844227}, {"d": "2022-09-30", "v": 7.745227}, {"d": "2022-10-31", "v": 5.700457}, {"d": "2022-11-30", "v": 5.669457}, {"d": "2022-12-31", "v": 5.524457}, {"d": "2023-01-31", "v": 5.33142}, {"d": "2023-02-28", "v": 5.26942}, {"d": "2023-03-31", "v": 5.22042}, {"d": "2023-04-30", "v": 3.867744}, {"d": "2023-05-31", "v": 3.785744}, {"d": "2023-06-30", "v": 3.691744}, {"d": "2023-07-31", "v": 3.760314}, {"d": "2023-08-31", "v": 3.680314}, {"d": "2023-09-30", "v": 3.631314}, {"d": "2023-10-31", "v": 3.127216}, {"d": "2023-11-30", "v": 3.076216}, {"d": "2023-12-31", "v": 3.066216}, {"d": "2024-01-31", "v": 2.327936}, {"d": "2024-02-29", "v": 2.285936}, {"d": "2024-03-31", "v": 2.264936}, {"d": "2024-04-30", "v": 2.639541}, {"d": "2024-05-31", "v": 2.607541}, {"d": "2024-06-30", "v": 2.592541}, {"d": "2024-07-31", "v": 1.786813}, {"d": "2024-08-31", "v": 1.769813}, {"d": "2024-09-30", "v": 1.793813}, {"d": "2024-10-31", "v": 1.624908}, {"d": "2024-11-30", "v": 1.628908}, {"d": "2024-12-31", "v": 1.646908}, {"d": "2025-01-31", "v": 1.364595}, {"d": "2025-02-28", "v": 1.364595}, {"d": "2025-03-31", "v": 1.362595}, {"d": "2025-04-30", "v": 1.303867}, {"d": "2025-05-31", "v": 1.298867}, {"d": "2025-06-30", "v": 1.288867}, {"d": "2025-07-31", "v": 2.023376}, {"d": "2025-08-31", "v": 2.003376}, {"d": "2025-09-30", "v": 2.012376}, {"d": "2025-10-31", "v": 2.000689}, {"d": "2025-11-30", "v": 2.007689}, {"d": "2025-12-31", "v": 2.031689}, {"d": "2026-01-31", "v": 2.754172}, {"d": "2026-02-28", "v": 2.750172}, {"d": "2026-03-31", "v": 2.743172}, {"d": "2026-04-30", "v": 3.221552}, {"d": "2026-05-31", "v": 3.208552}, {"d": "2026-06-30", "v": 3.152552}, {"d": "2026-07-31", "v": 3.114552}, {"d": "2026-08-31", "v": 3.071552}], "history_series": "rate_growth_gap", "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-08-31", "from": "unknown", "to": "tracking", "value": "3.071552", "note": "Nominal GDP growth 6.6 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.49 %: a gap of +3.1 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output)."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-08-31", "state": "tracking", "value": "3.071552"}]}