{"id": "real_wage_tracker", "framework": "wages", "framework_title": "Real wages", "title": "Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)", "kind": "level", "direction": "lower_is_worse", "unit": "pp", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": " pp", "format": null, "signed": true}, "state": "watch", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-08-01", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "value": "0.406431", "value_display": "+0.4 pp", "delta_value": "0.127315", "delta_display": "+0.1 pp", "delta_period": "1m", "threshold_hit": {"state": "watch", "op": "<=", "value": 0.5, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "rationale": "his +0.4 reading was 'a rounding error'"}, "thresholds": [{"state": "watch", "op": "<=", "value": 0.5, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": null, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "his +0.4 reading was 'a rounding error'", "hold_obs": null}, {"state": "stress", "op": "<=", "value": 0.0, "rule": null, "stated_by": "lavish", "cite": {"title": "Are Wages Really Keeping Up With Inflation?", "date": "2026-08-16", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/are-wages-really-keeping-up-with"}, "attributed_to": null, "quote": "Whatever cushion you had between what you earn and what things cost is just about gone now", "rationale": null, "hold_obs": null}, {"state": "breach", "op": "<=", "value": -1.0, "rule": null, "stated_by": "project", "cite": null, "attributed_to": null, "quote": null, "rationale": "clearly negative real wages", "hold_obs": null}], "what_moved": "Wage growth (4.1 %) minus CPI (3.7 %) is +0.4 pp, 0.1 pp below the project's 0.5 pp watch line.", "provenance": {"value_source": {"series": "real_wage_tracker_pp", "date": "2026-08-01", "value": "0.406431", "url": "derived:atl_wage_tracker - cpi_yoy", "snapshot": null, "fetched_at": null, "vintage": "derived"}, "transform": "atl_wage_tracker - cpi_yoy", "inputs": {"atl_wage_tracker": {"series": "atl_wage_tracker", "date": "2026-08-01", "value": "4.100000", "url": 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Wages Really Keeping Up With Inflation?", "date": "2026-08-16", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/are-wages-really-keeping-up-with"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [{"d": "2021-10-01", "v": -2.021869}, {"d": "2021-11-01", "v": -2.309003}, {"d": "2021-12-01", "v": -2.236403}, {"d": "2022-01-01", "v": -2.179872}, {"d": "2022-02-01", "v": -1.971064}, {"d": "2022-03-01", "v": -2.542456}, {"d": "2022-04-01", "v": -2.158629}, {"d": "2022-05-01", "v": -2.381512}, {"d": "2022-06-01", "v": -2.359758}, {"d": "2022-07-01", "v": -1.824815}, {"d": "2022-08-01", "v": -1.662693}, {"d": "2022-09-01", "v": -1.90167}, {"d": "2022-10-01", "v": -1.445427}, {"d": "2022-11-01", "v": -0.710323}, {"d": "2022-12-01", "v": -0.254401}, {"d": "2023-01-01", "v": -0.310147}, {"d": "2023-02-01", "v": 0.064387}, {"d": "2023-03-01", "v": 1.415026}, {"d": "2023-04-01", "v": 1.06968}, {"d": "2023-05-01", "v": 1.852391}, {"d": "2023-06-01", "v": 2.630822}, {"d": "2023-07-01", "v": 2.52222}, {"d": "2023-08-01", "v": 1.634888}, {"d": "2023-09-01", "v": 1.500302}, {"d": "2023-10-01", "v": 1.858855}, {"d": "2023-11-01", "v": 1.862729}, {"d": "2023-12-01", "v": 1.847877}, {"d": "2024-01-01", "v": 2.009115}, {"d": "2024-02-01", "v": 1.846829}, {"d": "2024-03-01", "v": 1.222615}, {"d": "2024-04-01", "v": 1.942636}, {"d": "2024-05-01", "v": 1.930971}, {"d": "2024-06-01", "v": 2.328603}, {"d": "2024-07-01", "v": 1.805247}, {"d": "2024-08-01", "v": 2.16927}, {"d": "2024-09-01", "v": 2.359367}, {"d": "2024-10-01", "v": 2.102095}, {"d": "2024-11-01", "v": 1.65062}, {"d": "2024-12-01", "v": 1.311943}, {"d": "2025-01-01", "v": 1.199517}, {"d": "2025-02-01", "v": 1.478451}, {"d": "2025-03-01", "v": 1.909275}, {"d": "2025-04-01", "v": 1.988711}, {"d": "2025-05-01", "v": 1.945103}, {"d": "2025-06-01", "v": 1.430787}, {"d": "2025-07-01", "v": 1.395098}, {"d": "2025-08-01", "v": 1.083826}, {"d": "2025-09-01", "v": 1.187323}, {"d": "2025-11-01", "v": 1.320569}, {"d": "2025-12-01", "v": 0.986469}, {"d": "2026-01-01", "v": 0.543331}, {"d": "2026-02-01", "v": 0.830994}, {"d": "2026-03-01", "v": 0.411555}, {"d": "2026-04-01", "v": -0.534159}, {"d": "2026-05-01", "v": -0.966404}, {"d": "2026-06-01", "v": -0.284404}, {"d": "2026-07-01", "v": 0.279116}, {"d": "2026-08-01", "v": 0.406431}], "sparkline_days": 1825, "computed_at": "2026-09-23T14:05:00", "stated_by": null, "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "history": [{"d": "2021-10-01", "v": -2.021869}, {"d": "2021-11-01", "v": -2.309003}, {"d": "2021-12-01", "v": -2.236403}, {"d": "2022-01-01", "v": -2.179872}, {"d": "2022-02-01", "v": -1.971064}, {"d": "2022-03-01", "v": -2.542456}, {"d": "2022-04-01", "v": -2.158629}, {"d": "2022-05-01", "v": -2.381512}, {"d": "2022-06-01", "v": -2.359758}, {"d": "2022-07-01", "v": -1.824815}, {"d": "2022-08-01", "v": -1.662693}, {"d": "2022-09-01", "v": -1.90167}, {"d": "2022-10-01", "v": -1.445427}, {"d": "2022-11-01", "v": -0.710323}, {"d": "2022-12-01", "v": -0.254401}, {"d": "2023-01-01", "v": -0.310147}, {"d": "2023-02-01", "v": 0.064387}, {"d": "2023-03-01", "v": 1.415026}, {"d": "2023-04-01", "v": 1.06968}, {"d": "2023-05-01", "v": 1.852391}, {"d": "2023-06-01", "v": 2.630822}, {"d": "2023-07-01", "v": 2.52222}, {"d": "2023-08-01", "v": 1.634888}, {"d": "2023-09-01", "v": 1.500302}, {"d": "2023-10-01", "v": 1.858855}, {"d": "2023-11-01", "v": 1.862729}, {"d": "2023-12-01", "v": 1.847877}, {"d": "2024-01-01", "v": 2.009115}, {"d": "2024-02-01", "v": 1.846829}, {"d": "2024-03-01", "v": 1.222615}, {"d": "2024-04-01", "v": 1.942636}, {"d": "2024-05-01", "v": 1.930971}, {"d": "2024-06-01", "v": 2.328603}, {"d": "2024-07-01", "v": 1.805247}, {"d": "2024-08-01", "v": 2.16927}, {"d": "2024-09-01", "v": 2.359367}, {"d": "2024-10-01", "v": 2.102095}, {"d": "2024-11-01", "v": 1.65062}, {"d": "2024-12-01", "v": 1.311943}, {"d": "2025-01-01", "v": 1.199517}, {"d": "2025-02-01", "v": 1.478451}, {"d": "2025-03-01", "v": 1.909275}, {"d": "2025-04-01", "v": 1.988711}, {"d": "2025-05-01", "v": 1.945103}, {"d": "2025-06-01", "v": 1.430787}, {"d": "2025-07-01", "v": 1.395098}, {"d": "2025-08-01", "v": 1.083826}, {"d": "2025-09-01", "v": 1.187323}, {"d": "2025-11-01", "v": 1.320569}, {"d": "2025-12-01", "v": 0.986469}, {"d": "2026-01-01", "v": 0.543331}, {"d": "2026-02-01", "v": 0.830994}, {"d": "2026-03-01", "v": 0.411555}, {"d": "2026-04-01", "v": -0.534159}, {"d": "2026-05-01", "v": -0.966404}, {"d": "2026-06-01", "v": -0.284404}, {"d": "2026-07-01", "v": 0.279116}, {"d": "2026-08-01", "v": 0.406431}], "history_series": "real_wage_tracker_pp", "companion_history": [{"series": "real_ahe_pp", "label": "AHE − CPI", "points": [{"d": "2021-10-01", "v": -0.805484}, {"d": "2021-11-01", "v": -1.444631}, {"d": "2021-12-01", "v": -2.088225}, {"d": "2022-01-01", "v": -1.900186}, {"d": "2022-02-01", "v": -2.579883}, {"d": "2022-03-01", "v": -2.64835}, {"d": "2022-04-01", "v": -2.500853}, {"d": "2022-05-01", "v": -3.02413}, {"d": "2022-06-01", "v": -3.657008}, {"d": "2022-07-01", "v": -3.045363}, {"d": "2022-08-01", "v": -2.869581}, {"d": "2022-09-01", "v": -3.069327}, {"d": "2022-10-01", "v": -2.735793}, {"d": "2022-11-01", "v": -2.019065}, {"d": "2022-12-01", "v": -1.516523}, {"d": "2023-01-01", "v": -1.916476}, {"d": "2023-02-01", "v": -1.263173}, {"d": "2023-03-01", "v": -0.362332}, {"d": "2023-04-01", "v": -0.330821}, {"d": "2023-05-01", "v": 0.313762}, {"d": "2023-06-01", "v": 1.690654}, {"d": "2023-07-01", "v": 1.49136}, {"d": "2023-08-01", "v": 0.804678}, {"d": "2023-09-01", "v": 0.721549}, {"d": "2023-10-01", "v": 0.979038}, {"d": "2023-11-01", "v": 0.976075}, {"d": "2023-12-01", "v": 0.746238}, {"d": "2024-01-01", "v": 1.300393}, {"d": "2024-02-01", "v": 0.979559}, {"d": "2024-03-01", "v": 0.670496}, {"d": "2024-04-01", "v": 0.621098}, {"d": "2024-05-01", "v": 0.880225}, {"d": "2024-06-01", "v": 0.94668}, {"d": "2024-07-01", "v": 0.738925}, {"d": "2024-08-01", "v": 1.393731}, {"d": "2024-09-01", "v": 1.469982}, {"d": "2024-10-01", "v": 1.451391}, {"d": "2024-11-01", "v": 1.435578}, {"d": "2024-12-01", "v": 1.194766}, {"d": "2025-01-01", "v": 0.973988}, {"d": "2025-02-01", "v": 1.292008}, {"d": "2025-03-01", "v": 1.822839}, {"d": "2025-04-01", "v": 1.601254}, {"d": "2025-05-01", "v": 1.629053}, {"d": "2025-06-01", "v": 1.186828}, {"d": "2025-07-01", "v": 1.25747}, {"d": "2025-08-01", "v": 1.05884}, {"d": "2025-09-01", "v": 0.835654}, {"d": "2025-11-01", "v": 1.253153}, {"d": "2025-12-01", "v": 1.013003}, {"d": "2026-01-01", "v": 0.598465}, {"d": "2026-02-01", "v": 0.831606}, {"d": "2026-03-01", "v": -0.054493}, {"d": "2026-04-01", "v": -0.56273}, {"d": "2026-05-01", "v": -1.131233}, {"d": "2026-06-01", "v": -0.501566}, {"d": "2026-07-01", "v": -0.285348}, {"d": "2026-08-01", "v": -0.607824}]}], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-08-01", "from": "unknown", "to": "watch", "value": "0.406431", "note": "Wage growth (4.1 %) minus CPI (3.7 %) is +0.4 pp, 0.1 pp below the project's 0.5 pp watch line."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-08-01", "state": "watch", "value": "0.406431"}]}