{"id": "trapdoor_verdict", "framework": "trapdoors", "framework_title": "Three Trap Doors", "title": "Which trap door, and is the floor showing?", "kind": "composite", "direction": "tracking", "unit": "count", "display": {"decimals": 1, "suffix": "", "format": null, "signed": false}, "state": "calm", "previous_state": "unknown", "state_changed_on": "2026-11-04", "as_of": "2026-11-05", "value": "0", "value_display": "Not triggered", "delta_value": null, "delta_display": null, "delta_period": null, "threshold_hit": null, "thresholds": [], "what_moved": "Door pulled: hold. The balance sheet is +$3 B and the 30-year is −12 bp since 28 Oct 2026: the floor is not showing. Four-quarter holdings growth 3.2 % (his Response line: 6 %).", "provenance": {"rule": "fed_assets_since_fomc.value > 0 and long_end_since_fomc.value >= 0", "stated_by": "project", "evidence": {"fed_last_action": {"value": "0", "state": "tracking", "as_of": "2026-10-28"}, "long_end_since_fomc": {"value": "-12.000000", "state": "tracking", "as_of": "2026-11-05"}, "fed_assets_since_fomc": {"value": "2510000000", "state": "tracking", "as_of": "2026-11-04"}}, "explainer": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "cite": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "context_evidence": {"fed_holdings_4q_growth": {"value": "3.185815", "state": "tracking", "as_of": "2026-11-04"}}}, "extras": {"rule_result": false, "evidence_states": {"fed_last_action": "tracking", "long_end_since_fomc": "tracking", "fed_assets_since_fomc": "tracking"}, "context_evidence_states": {"fed_holdings_4q_growth": "tracking"}, "manual_companion": {"key": "fedwatch_p_hike", "value": null, "as_of": null, "meta": {}, "source_url": null, "entered_by": null, "overdue": true, "entered_by_editor": true}, "fed_holdings_4q_growth": "3.185815", "fed_holdings_4q_growth_as_of": "2026-11-04"}, "explainer": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "references": [], "sparkline": [], "sparkline_days": 365, "computed_at": "2026-11-06T14:15:00", "stated_by": "project", "calm_band": null, "zero_band": null, "reading_rule": null, "cite": {"title": "What If The Fed Raises Rates", "date": "2026-05-24", "url": "https://www.jameslavish.com/p/what-if-the-fed-raises-rates"}, "rationale": "his claim is that every action ends in long-end balance-sheet expansion; 'floor showing' = book growing while the long end has not fallen since the decision. His 6 % four-quarter holdings-growth 'Response' line is shown beside the rule, not used by it (owner decision pending)", "rule": "fed_assets_since_fomc.value > 0 and long_end_since_fomc.value >= 0", "evidence": ["fed_last_action", "long_end_since_fomc", "fed_assets_since_fomc"], "context_evidence": ["fed_holdings_4q_growth"], "history": [], "history_series": null, "companion_history": [], "state_changes": [{"on": "2026-11-04", "from": "unknown", "to": "calm", "value": "0.000000", "note": "Door pulled: hold. The balance sheet is +$3 B and the 30-year is −9 bp since 28 Oct 2026: the floor is not showing. Four-quarter holdings growth 3.2 % (his Response line: 6 %)."}, {"on": "2026-10-28", "from": "calm", "to": "unknown", "value": null, "note": "Decision on 28 Oct 2026: target range not yet observed; verdict pending."}, {"on": "2026-10-22", "from": "stress", "to": "calm", "value": "0.000000", "note": "Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is +$7 B and the 30-year is −6 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is not showing. Four-quarter holdings growth 3.0 % (his Response line: 6 %)."}, {"on": "2026-10-07", "from": "calm", "to": "stress", "value": "1.000000", "note": "Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is +$1 B and the 30-year is +32 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is showing. Four-quarter holdings growth 2.9 % (his Response line: 6 %)."}, {"on": "2026-09-30", "from": "stress", "to": "calm", "value": "0.000000", "note": "Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is −$4 B and the 30-year is +29 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is not showing. A hike with a flat or shrinking book is the one branch of the framework where the floor claim is not yet supported. Four-quarter holdings growth 2.9 % (his Response line: 6 %)."}, {"on": "2026-09-23", "from": "calm", "to": "unknown", "value": null, "note": "Awaiting the first post-decision balance-sheet observation; the trap-door verdict is pending."}, {"on": "2026-09-23", "from": "unknown", "to": "stress", "value": "1.000000", "note": "Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is +$1 B and the 30-year is +5 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is showing. Four-quarter holdings growth 2.7 % (his Response line: 6 %)."}, {"on": "2026-09-21", "from": "unknown", "to": "calm", "value": "0.000000", "note": "Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is $0 B and the 30-year is −6 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is not showing. A hike with a flat or shrinking book is the one branch of the framework where the floor claim is not yet supported. Four-quarter holdings growth 2.6 % (his Response line: 6 %)."}], "state_history": [{"as_of": "2026-09-16", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-09-21", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-22", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-23", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-24", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-25", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-28", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-29", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-09-30", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-01", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-02", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-05", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-06", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-07", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-08", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-09", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-13", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-14", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-15", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-16", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-19", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-20", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-21", "state": "stress", "value": "1"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-22", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-23", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-26", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-27", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-10-28", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-29", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-10-30", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-03", "state": "unknown", "value": null}, {"as_of": "2026-11-04", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}, {"as_of": "2026-11-05", "state": "calm", "value": "0"}]}