A desk for the bigger picture.

The Fiscal Desk turns the fiscal and monetary-plumbing frameworks James Lavish publishes in The Informationist into live, sourced gauges: the Debt Spiral, the 6 Percent Club, the Four Doors, the Three Trap Doors, fiscal dominance, and the plumbing behind them (bank reserves, the reverse repo facility, the Treasury General Account, the standing repo facility, FIMA and swap lines), plus a weekly Treasury-supply desk and a ledger of what he said to watch and how it resolved.

Who built it

An independent reader, RabbitSuit. The site is not affiliated with, endorsed by or reviewed by James Lavish or The Informationist. It exists because the frameworks are stated with thresholds, and thresholds can be checked.

What is sourced, and what is not

Every figure comes from a free public source (Treasury FiscalData, TreasuryDirect, the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 data, the New York Fed, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Atlanta Fed, TIC) and links to a stored raw snapshot of the exact record. Two things have no free feed and are entered by the editor with a citation, always labelled “entered by editor”: CME FedWatch probabilities and CBO baselines. The auction tail versus when-issued is never computed, because the when-issued quote is dealer data; it appears only when entered with a press citation. Missing data stays missing: the site never forward-fills a value it did not receive.

How thresholds are labelled

Each threshold carries one of three tags. Lavish means he stated the number in the cited issue. Cited means a third party's figure that he cites and relies on (Powell, Moody's, Yellen, TBAC), with the attribution shown. Project rule means he gave a direction but no number, and the site chose an operational level with a stated rationale. The methodology page prints every threshold with its tag; project rules are never presented as his.

Content boundary

No newsletter prose is reproduced anywhere on this site or in its database. Issues are cited by title, date and link. The few quotations are under twenty-five words and come from free, public pieces. Requests from the author to change or remove anything will be honoured.

Not investment advice

This is a monitor of published frameworks against public data. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.