Watch. Check. Resolve.

A CNBC report said so; Treasury has not confirmed. Evidence to weigh: the TGA path around operation days against bill issuance.

Resolves on 5 Nov 2026 via editor · from The Monday Brief: Last Words Before Fed Blackout Period (31 Aug 2026)

The one test currently running against the thesis. At send (16 Sep): fed funds printed 2 bp under IORB, the standing repo facility had gone days without a taker, and reserves were 9.3 % of GDP (week to 16 Sep) against the Fed staff's 10 % line. Closed by the editor on 31 Dec (his next quarterly) from the states of the EFFR − IORB, standing-repo and reserves-to-GDP gauges on that date: plumbing still loose = contrary to the thesis; tightening = as expected.

Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via editor · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)

At send: Britain and Japan both cut long-end issuance in 2025 and both long yields rose (30-year gilt 5.93 % on 10 Sep, a 1998 level; 10-year JGB above 3 % on 2 Sep, first since 1996). evidence_source: owner-entered. No free 30-year gilt or JGB feed is verified, so the editor closes this on 31 Dec with citations: long yields lower after the cuts = contrary; not lower = as expected.

Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via editor · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)

At send: 3.0 % through Q1 2026, and reserve-management purchases stopped on 14 Aug. Resolves from the four-quarter growth of securities held outright (H.4.1): crossing 6 % resolves at once as expected (a balance-sheet response); still under 6 % on 31 Dec resolves contrary.

Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via gauge state · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)

At send (20 Sep): the first enlarged operation on 10 Sep had a $6 B cap, $10.5 B offered and $5.19 B taken. Resolves from the long-end operations through 4 Nov and the Q4 tentative buyback schedule published at the refunding: 'kept' if long-end caps of at least $6 B per operation persist (as expected), 'cut' if they are lower (mixed), 'lapsed' if no long-end operations are scheduled (contrary). The $2 B caps on the pre-August schedule rows for 27 Oct and 4 Nov are not read as a cut until the Q4 schedule replaces them.

Resolved 4 Nov 2026 via the post-refunding buyback schedule · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)

He writes that a hotter September CPI (released 2026-10-14; August was 3.4 % headline, 2.4 % ex food and energy) would likely raise the probability of another hike this month. September CPI, released 2026-10-14: 3.7 % headline and 2.6 % ex food and energy, year over year, not seasonally adjusted (BLS, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm; CUUR0000SA0 336.940 vs 324.800, CUUR0000SA0L1E 339.287 vs 330.804), hotter than August on both. Hike = as expected (his conditional lean); hold = contrary; a cut = contrary. Resolves from the upper bound of the target range in the FOMC statement dated 2026-10-28: at or above 4.25 % is a hike from the current 3.75-4.00 % range.

Resolved 28 Oct 2026 via data release · from What Is Fiscal Dominance? (11 Oct 2026)

He calls the 20-year 'not exactly the most popular bond with investors' and watches how much demand shows up. Project test: bid-to-cover at or above the average of the previous twelve 20-year auctions in the database, 2.63 (new issues and reopenings, 22 Oct 2025 to 15 Sep 2026; the exact mean is 2.626) = as expected; below = contrary. The auction date is the one on the Treasury's announced schedule (Wednesday 21 October, a 19-year 10-month reopening).

Resolved — via TreasuryDirect auction result · from What Is Fiscal Dominance? (11 Oct 2026)

The FIMA line stayed at zero through August, which points to Tokyo selling rather than borrowing dollars. The August TIC data (published around 16 Oct) is where that shows up in Japan's holdings.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026 via data release · from The Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion (8 Sept 2026)

Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.

His falsification test: two consecutive monthly rises would cut against the thesis. At send the July print was already down ($3,773.1 B vs $3,778.1 B in June and $3,845.9 B in May), so the October print can only fail to break the thesis. Resolves from the TIC 'Of Which: Foreign Official' row: fewer than two consecutive rises = as expected (thesis survives); two or more = contrary. The Japan-specific twin is the 16 Oct TIC item.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026 via data release · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)

The September Monthly Treasury Statement closes fiscal 2026; CBO's preliminary estimates, which he cites, are the bar. Both at or above = as expected; one = mixed; both below = contrary. The site's trailing-twelve-month gauges on the 2026-09-30 observation are the fiscal-year totals, so the item waits for that print and cannot resolve on the August reading.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026 via gauge state · from What Is Fiscal Dominance? (11 Oct 2026)

all conditions hold = as expected; some = mixed; none = contrary

Resolved from the gauge readings: net interest ttm $1.05 T on 30 Sep 2026 (not met: net_interest_ttm.value >= 1.143e12); deficit ttm $1.99 T on 30 Sep 2026 (not met: deficit_ttm.value >= 1.993e12).

A long-end auction landing during the meeting: the read is whether the 20-year clears without a tail while the Fed is silent.

Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion (8 Sept 2026)

Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.

The discretion test: the cap is a floor the Treasury can exceed. Taking the full cap or more reads as expected; taking less than the cap is the opposite of 'floor or more'.

Resolved 10 Sept 2026 via FiscalData buyback result · from The Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion (8 Sept 2026)

Treasury accepted less than the stated cap, contrary to the declared 'floor or more' test. The operation's amounts and source record are shown below.

Resolved from the editor-entered FedWatch odds: 61.7 % on 4 Sep, above 50 %, and the first fall in the series came on strong payrolls because earnings cooled.

Resolved 8 Sept 2026 via editor · from The Monday Brief: Last Words Before Fed Blackout Period (31 Aug 2026)

Above 50 %: 61.7 % on 4 Sep per the FedWatch figure he reported on 8 Sep (entered by editor; no free feed).

No reply has been reported; the item expires unless the editor finds one.

Resolved — via editor · from The Monday Brief: A $432 Billion Month (17 Aug 2026)

Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: Friday at Ten (24 Aug 2026)

Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.

Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: Friday at Ten (24 Aug 2026)

Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.

The belly is outside the expanded buyback window, so these auctions meet the market on their own.

Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: Friday at Ten (24 Aug 2026)

Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.

The 20-year is the least loved point on the curve; a weak result would push the long end wider.

Resolved — via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: A $432 Billion Month (17 Aug 2026)

Recorded project test: high yield at or above 5.20 %. This assesses this auction's yield; one result does not establish that term premium is permanently structural. A tail is not assessed without a cited when-issued quote.

Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: The Long End Didn't Take It (10 Aug 2026)

Resolved from the April 2026 10-year (8 Apr) and 30-year (9 Apr) results in the auctions table.

Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours (29 Mar 2026)

Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.