The rules behind the readings

Nothing behind the curtain.

Every threshold, calculation and source — open to inspection.

A gauge has a value, a state and a receipt. The value is a stored observation or a declared transform of stored observations. The state is the most severe threshold the value satisfies, with hysteresis so a gauge does not flap. The receipt is the source record, the snapshot and the issue that explains why the number matters.

States

Calm inside the comfortable range · Watch approaching a stated line · Stress a line is crossed · Breach the level he names as policy-forcing · Tracking informational, no threshold · No fresh data no fresh data or an editor entry is overdue.

Denominators

Ratios to GDP divide by the latest quarterly nominal GDP (BEA NIPA Table 1.1.5, seasonally adjusted annual rate), carried forward for at most 240 days. Trailing-twelve-month flows (receipts, outlays, deficit, net interest) are sums of the last twelve Monthly Treasury Statement months. Interest as a share of receipts divides trailing net interest by trailing receipts, both cash basis.

Vintages

An observation is keyed by series, date and vintage. A re-fetch that returns the same value writes nothing. A revised value for an existing date is stored as a new vintage; the earlier one is kept. The site shows the latest vintage and the receipt names it.

Hysteresis

A gauge moves to a more severe state as soon as the value crosses the line. It moves back only after the value has been on the calm side by at least the listed margin for at least the listed number of observations. A threshold marked “held N prints” fires only when the last N observations all satisfy it (the 10-year's “pushes above 4.5 % and holds”). A value older than twice its cadence turns the gauge unknown and the last good value is shown with its date.

Event scoring

Auction and buyback gauges score the latest event rather than a level. Auction bands are relative to the trailing twelve auctions of the same term: bid-to-cover, dealer share and indirect share (each bidder class over competitive accepted). Buybacks score offered ÷ cap and whether the cap was taken. Both rule sets are project rules and are printed below.

Owner-entered items

CME FedWatch odds, the QRA cash target, the statutory debt limit when the DTS does not carry it, an extraordinary-measures flag and the auction tail have no free feed. The editor enters them with a source URL; they are stored apart from feed data, shown with an “entered by editor” tag, and a gauge that needs one turns unknown when the entry is overdue (fedwatch_p_hike every 7 days; qra_tga_target every 92 days; statutory_debt_limit every 365 days; extraordinary_measures_active every 30 days).

Tail policy

The when-issued tail needs the 1:00 pm WI quote, which no free source publishes. The site reports high yield versus the previous auction of the same term, bid-to-cover versus the trailing mean and bidder shares, and labels the tail not computed unless the editor enters it with a citation.

What this site is not

This site publishes no composite index or score. James Lavish publishes his own proprietary gauges in The Informationist Institutional, and nothing here reproduces or approximates them. Every reading here is a single public series against a threshold he stated or one we label as ours.

Cited as The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink.

Every threshold, with who stated it

Lavish = stated in the cited issue. Cited = a third party's figure he relies on, attributed. Project = the site's operational rule where he gave a direction but no number, with its rationale.

Fed and Treasury plumbing

Thresholds for Fed and Treasury plumbing
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Bank reserves vs GDPWatch<= 11Project rule1 pp buffer above the cited 10 % line
Bank reserves vs GDPStress<= 10Cited: Jerome Powell (2025-10-19); Fed staff's 10 %-of-GDP line (stated 2026-08-26, relayed in Institutional No. 1)reserves below 10% of GDPWhy QT is Dead and QE is Coming (19 Oct 2025)
Bank reserves vs GDPBreach<= 8Cited: Lavish's 'Danger Zone' chart8% of GDPLiquidity (QE) Is Coming (2 Feb 2025)
Bank reserves vs GDPreferencereference line: 2019 repo breakLavishWhy QT is Dead and QE is Coming (19 Oct 2025)
Bank reservesWatch<= 3000000000000Cited: Kobeissi Letter comfort band $3.0–3.3TIs The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again) (5 Jan 2025)
Bank reservesStress<= 2800000000000Lavishbank reserves dip below the Fed's $2.8T floorIs The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again) (5 Jan 2025)
Bank reservesBreach<= 2700000000000LavishThe Fed's effective floor is roughly $2.7 trillion.What Fear and Greed Signals to the Market (23 Nov 2025)
Overnight reverse repoWatch<= 100000000000LavishThe RRP is drained, only ~$100B left there.Liquidity (QE) Is Coming (2 Feb 2025)
Overnight reverse repoStress<= 25000000000Project ruleeffectively empty; his 2025-10-19 reading was ~$5B
QT-to-QE triggerrulerrp_balance.value <= 25e9 and reserves_usd.value <= 2.8e12Lavishonce RRP approaches zero and reserves dip below the Fed's $2.8T floorIs The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again) (5 Jan 2025)
TGA build, 4 weeksWatch>= 300000000000Project rule≈ 2× the ~$160B/month TGA drain he documented for Jun–Nov 2025
TGA build, 4 weeksStress>= 500000000000Project rulethe $640B-in-under-four-months pace he called 'a shop-vac of liquidity'
Standing Repo FacilityWatchany(last(5) > 0)Lavishwhen usage starts climbing and staying elevatedThe Fed's Favorite Lie: This Isn't QE (2 Nov 2025)
Standing Repo FacilityStresscount(last(5) > 10e9) >= 3Project rulepersistent, not one-off
Standing Repo FacilityBreachany(last(5) >= 50e9)Project rulethe 2025-10-31 record ($50.35B) as the bar
SOFR − EFFRWatch>= 5Project ruleSOFR trading above fed funds
SOFR − EFFRStress>= 19LavishSOFR-EFFR at +0.19 … this isn't a spike, it's a regime changeWhy QT is Dead and QE is Coming (19 Oct 2025)
SOFR − EFFRBreach>= 50Project ruleSeptember-2019-type dislocation
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)Watch> -5Project ruleinside the 'abundant' zone he anchors near −7 bp and approaching the 'ample' anchor near −1 bp; the anchors are descriptive, the line is oursThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)Stress>= 0Lavishscarce, just like 2019The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)Breach>= 10Project rulea 2019-type dislocation: fed funds trading through IORB by double digits
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)referencereference line: abundant (his anchor)LavishThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)referencereference line: ample (his anchor)LavishThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
FIMA repo (foreign official)Watch> 0LavishThis story changes completely the day that zero becomes a number.The Yen Defense: What $87 Billion Actually Bought (9 Aug 2026)
FIMA repo (foreign official)Stress>= 10000000000Project rulea real draw, not a test
FIMA repo (foreign official)Breach>= 60000000000Cited: Fed FIMA limit per counterpartyThe Yen Defense: What $87 Billion Actually Bought (9 Aug 2026)
Central bank swap linesWatch> 500000000Lavishanything over $500MThe Monday Brief: The Week Washington Bought Yen (3 Aug 2026)
Central bank swap linesStress>= 10000000000Project ruleorder of magnitude above the watch level
Central bank swap linesBreach>= 100000000000Project rulecrisis-scale usage (2008/2020)

Treasury supply

Thresholds for Treasury supply
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Latest coupon auctionrule{"calm": "btc >= mean12(btc) - 0.10 and dealer_share <= mean12(dealer_share) + 5 and indirect_share >= mean12(indirect_share) - 5", "watch": "otherwise", "stress": "btc < 2.0 or dealer_share >= 30", "breach": "dealer_share >= 50 or (tail_bp is not null and tail_bp >= 3 and term in ['10-Year','30-Year'])"}Project rulehe names the internals (indirect bid first, then tail, then bid-to-cover) but gives no numbers; bands are relative to the trailing twelve auctions of the same termWhat I'm Watching This Week (6 Jul 2026)
Latest buyback operationrule{"calm": "offered / cap >= 5 and accepted >= cap", "watch": "otherwise", "stress": "offered / cap < 2", "breach": "offered < cap"}Project rulehis 2026-09-08 reference was 7.9–15.3× oversubscribed with 100 % of the cap taken; 5× keeps 'calm' well inside that; undersubscription would mean sellers did not show upThe Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion (8 Sept 2026)
Bills as share of marketable debtWatch>= 20Cited: TBAC recommendation (~20 %, 15 % floor)Did the US Treasury Just Blink? (23 Aug 2026)
Bills as share of marketable debtStress>= 25Project rulewell past the recommendation

Debt Spiral

Thresholds for Debt Spiral
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Net interest, trailing 12 monthsWatch>= 1250000000000Project rulejust above the ~$1.2T he reported for 2026
Net interest, trailing 12 monthsStress>= 1400000000000Project rulemidpoint to the stated trigger
Net interest, trailing 12 monthsBreach>= 1500000000000Lavishthe interest expense blowing past $1.5 trillionWhy the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours (29 Mar 2026)
Net interest vs national defenseStress> 100Lavishnet interest now exceeds National DefenseThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Net interest as share of receiptsWatch>= 19Cited: Janet Yellen, Brookings, Jan 2026about 19% of revenueHow America Becomes a Banana Republic (3 May 2026)
Net interest as share of receiptsStress>= 25Project rulemidway between Yellen's current and Moody's 2035 figures
Net interest as share of receiptsBreach>= 30Cited: Moody's escalator 9 % (2021) → 18 % (2024) → 30 % (2035)US Debt Downgraded Again (18 May 2025)
Net interest as share of receiptsreferencereference line: Yellen 3-decade pathLavishHow America Becomes a Banana Republic (3 May 2026)
10-year Treasury yieldWatch>= 4.25Project ruleapproach band below the stated line
10-year Treasury yieldStress>= 4.5 (held 10)LavishIf it pushes above 4.5% and holds, the doom loop math gets dramatically worse.Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours (29 Mar 2026)
10-year Treasury yieldBreach>= 5Project ruleround-number level widely treated as the long-end break
Average rate on interest-bearing debtreferencereference line: his reading, end-Aug 2026LavishThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Average rate on interest-bearing debtreferencereference line: marketable, late 2022LavishDid the US Treasury Just Blink? (23 Aug 2026)
Average rate on interest-bearing debtreferencereference line: marketable, May 2026LavishWhat If The Fed Raises Rates (24 May 2026)

6 Percent Club

Thresholds for 6 Percent Club
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 monthsWatch>= 3.8Cited: 50-year average (OMB Historical Tables)The Dubious 6% Club (22 Feb 2026)
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 monthsStress>= 6LavishWelcome to the 6% Club.The Dubious 6% Club (22 Feb 2026)
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 monthsBreach>= 9Lavishwhere do we end up after the next recession? 10%? 12%?The Dubious 6% Club (22 Feb 2026)
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 monthsreferencereference line: Dalio targetLavishThe Dubious 6% Club (22 Feb 2026)
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 monthsreferencereference line: CBO 2036LavishThe Dubious 6% Club (22 Feb 2026)
Receipts as share of GDPrulecalm inside [16.0, 19.0] (inside = Hauser's Law holding (Door 2 locked))Cited: Hauser's Law (~17–18 % of GDP for 50 years)Why Can't You Get Ahead (11 Jan 2026)

Grow out of it

Thresholds for Grow out of it
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Nominal growth minus the rate paidreferencereference line: his reading, Jun 2026LavishThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 monthsreferencereference line: his reading, 11 months FY2026LavishThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Gaining, treading water, or losing?Watch<= 0.5Project ruletreading water: the growth-rate gap and the primary deficit within ±0.5 pp of GDP of each other; his reading was 'treading water, at best'The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Gaining, treading water, or losing?Stress<= -0.5Project rulelosing: the primary deficit outruns the growth-rate gap by more than 0.5 pp of GDPThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink

Term premium

Thresholds for Term premium
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
10-year term premium (ACM)Watch>= 0.75Project ruleabove the 71 bp he flagged as a five-year high
10-year term premium (ACM)Stress>= 1Project ruleno numeric line stated by Lavish for the ACM 10-year
10-year term premium (ACM)Breach>= 1.5Project ruleno numeric line stated by Lavish for the ACM 10-year
10-year term premium (ACM)referencereference line: 2025-04-26LavishTerm Premium: Bessent's Brewing Nightmare (27 Apr 2025)
10-year term premium (ACM)referencereference line: 2025-12-12LavishThe Fed's Cutting Rates: Why Are Mortgages Still Expensive (14 Dec 2025)
30-year Treasury yieldWatch>= 5Project ruleround-number level
30-year Treasury yieldStress>= 5.27Project rulethe post-2007 high (5.267 %, 2026-07-31) he reported, used as a lineThe Monday Brief: The Week Washington Bought Yen (3 Aug 2026)
30-year Treasury yieldBreach>= 5.5Project rulehis failed-auction anatomy used a 5.50 % stop as the illustrationWhy the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours (29 Mar 2026)

Three Trap Doors

Thresholds for Three Trap Doors
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Last Fed actionrulenull nullProject rule
Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)referencereference line: his Response lineLavishunder the 6% that would mark a ResponseThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)referencereference line: his reading, Q1 2026LavishThe Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink
Which trap door, and is the floor showing?rulefed_assets_since_fomc.value > 0 and long_end_since_fomc.value >= 0Project rulehis claim is that every action ends in long-end balance-sheet expansion; 'floor showing' = book growing while the long end has not fallen since the decision. His 6 % four-quarter holdings-growth 'Response' line is shown beside the rule, not used by it (owner decision pending)What If The Fed Raises Rates (24 May 2026)

Four Doors

Thresholds for Four Doors
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Which door is open — austeritydooroutlays_growth_yoy_ttm.value > 0 and interest_pct_receipts.state in [watch, stress, breach]Project ruleoperationalises his 75 %/87 %/>100 % mandatory-plus-interest argument: outlays still growing while interest eats receiptsThe Dubious 6% Club (22 Feb 2026)
Which door is open — taxesdoorreceipts_pct_gdp_ttm.state == calmCited: Hauser's LawWhy Can't You Get Ahead (11 Jan 2026)
Which door is open — defaultdoorstatic: lockedLavishdoesn't existTrump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter? (1 Feb 2026)
Which door is open — debasementdoorfed_assets_13w_change.value > 0 or buyback_quarter_capacity.delta > 0Project rulehis Door 4 is long-end balance-sheet expansion; a growing Fed book or a growing Treasury bid is the observableTrump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter? (1 Feb 2026)
Fed balance sheet, 13-week changeWatch>= 50000000000Project ruleexpansion beyond reserve-management noise
Fed balance sheet, 13-week changeStress>= 150000000000Project rule≈ $50B/month, QE-scale

Fed remittances

Thresholds for Fed remittances
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)Watch<= -200000000000Project ruleapproach band
Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)Stress<= -250000000000Cited: base-case peak (NY Fed / Peterson / Brookings)The Fed Has a Big Problem (13 Jul 2025)
Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)Breach<= -300000000000Cited: adverse caseThe Fed Has a Big Problem (13 Jul 2025)

Real wages

Thresholds for Real wages
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)Watch<= 0.5Project rulehis +0.4 reading was 'a rounding error'
Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)Stress<= 0LavishWhatever cushion you had between what you earn and what things cost is just about gone nowAre Wages Really Keeping Up With Inflation? (16 Aug 2026)
Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)Breach<= -1Project ruleclearly negative real wages

Debt ceiling

Thresholds for Debt ceiling
GaugeStateRuleStated bySource
Headroom under the debt limitWatch<= 1500000000000Project rule~ six months of borrowing at the 2026 pace
Headroom under the debt limitStress<= 500000000000Project rule~ two months
Headroom under the debt limitBreachmanual.extraordinary_measures_active.value == 1Lavisha toll booth rather than a wallDebt Ceiling Crisis: Part 2 (12 Jan 2025)

Derived series

SeriesExpression
t10yiedgs10 - dfii10
reserves_pct_gdpreserves / (align(gdp_nominal, ffill_within=240d) * 1000) * 100
reserves_usdreserves * 1e6
debt_pace_days_per_1t1e12 / (debt_total - lag(debt_total, 90d)) * 90
receipts_ttmsum_window(mts_receipts_m, 12)
outlays_ttmsum_window(mts_outlays_m, 12)
deficit_ttmsum_window(mts_deficit_m, 12)
net_interest_ttmsum_window(mts_net_interest_m, 12)
deficit_pct_gdp_ttmdeficit_ttm / (align(gdp_nominal, ffill_within=240d) * 1e9) * 100
receipts_pct_gdp_ttmreceipts_ttm / (align(gdp_nominal, ffill_within=240d) * 1e9) * 100
interest_pct_receiptsnet_interest_ttm / receipts_ttm * 100
outlays_growth_yoy_ttmpct_change(outlays_ttm, 12)
tga_usdtga_open * 1e6
tga_change_4wtga_usd - lag(tga_usd, 28d)
sofr_effr_spread_bp(sofr - effr) * 100
fed_assets_13w_change(fed_assets - lag(fed_assets, 91d)) * 1e6
fed_deferred_asset_usdfed_deferred_asset * 1e6
fed_swap_lines_usdfed_swap_lines * 1e6
fima_repo_usdfima_repo * 1e6
bills_share_marketablemspd_bills_public / mspd_marketable_public * 100
curve_2s30s_bp(dgs30 - dgs2) * 100
cpi_yoypct_change(cpi_nsa, 12)
ahe_yoypct_change(ahe_private, 12)
real_wage_tracker_ppatl_wage_tracker - cpi_yoy
real_ahe_ppahe_yoy - cpi_yoy
debt_limit_headroom_usdcoalesce(statutory_debt_limit, manual.statutory_debt_limit / 1e6) * 1e6 - debt_subject_to_limit * 1e6
effr_iorb_spread_bp(effr - align(iorb, ffill_within=5d)) * 100
effr_iorb_spread_20drolling_mean(effr_iorb_spread_bp, 20)
gross_interest_ttmsum_window(mts_gross_interest_m, 12)
defense_outlays_ttmsum_window(mts_defense_m, 12)
interest_over_defense_pctnet_interest_ttm / defense_outlays_ttm * 100
fed_holdings_4q_growthpct_change(fed_securities_outright, 52)
gdp_nominal_yoypct_change(gdp_nominal, 4)
real_gdp_yoypct_change(gdp_real, 4)
rate_growth_gapalign(gdp_nominal_yoy, ffill_within=240d) - avg_rate_total
primary_deficit_ttmdeficit_ttm - net_interest_ttm
primary_deficit_pct_gdp_ttmprimary_deficit_ttm / (align(gdp_nominal, ffill_within=240d) * 1e9) * 100
growout_net_pprate_growth_gap - primary_deficit_pct_gdp_ttm
two_year_minus_ceiling_bp(dgs2 - align(fed_target_high_stmt, ffill_within=120d)) * 100

Functions: align (carry a slower series forward within a limit), lag (value N days earlier), sum_window and rolling_mean (last N observations), pct_change, coalesce (feed value, else editor entry). Nothing else is allowed in a derived expression.

Hysteresis and staleness

GaugeMarginObservations
reserves_pct_gdp0.22
reserves_level500000000002
rrp_balance100000000003
tga_change_4w250000000003
sofr_effr_spread23
effr_iorb_spread13
bills_share_marketable0.31
net_interest_ttm200000000001
interest_vs_defense11
interest_pct_receipts0.51
ten_year_yield0.055
deficit_pct_gdp_ttm0.21
growout_verdict0.11
acm_tp100.055
thirty_year_yield0.055
fed_assets_13w_change100000000002
fed_deferred_asset50000000002
real_wage_tracker0.11

Stale after: daily 5 days · weekly 14 days · monthly 62 days · quarterly 190 days.

Calendar rules

FOMC blackout: Begins the second Saturday preceding the meeting; ends the Thursday following the meeting. Minutes 21 days after the meeting. Coupon auctions close 1:00 pm ET, bills 11:30 am; results are expected two minutes after the close.

Series and their sources

SeriesSourceIdentifierUnit
debt_totalfiscaldata.debt_to_pennytot_pub_debt_out_amtusd
debt_publicfiscaldata.debt_to_pennydebt_held_public_amtusd
tga_openfiscaldata.dts_operating_cashopen_today_balusd_millions
debt_subject_to_limitfiscaldata.dts_debt_subject_to_limitclose_today_balusd_millions
statutory_debt_limitfiscaldata.dts_debt_subject_to_limitclose_today_balusd_millions
mts_receipts_mfiscaldata.mts_table_1current_month_gross_rcpt_amtusd
mts_outlays_mfiscaldata.mts_table_1current_month_gross_outly_amtusd
mts_deficit_mfiscaldata.mts_table_1current_month_dfct_sur_amtusd
mts_net_interest_mfiscaldata.mts_table_9current_month_rcpt_outly_amtusd
mts_defense_mfiscaldata.mts_table_9current_month_rcpt_outly_amtusd
mts_gross_interest_mfiscaldata.mts_table_5current_month_gross_outly_amtusd
avg_rate_marketablefiscaldata.avg_interest_ratesavg_interest_rate_amtpct
avg_rate_totalfiscaldata.avg_interest_ratesavg_interest_rate_amtpct
mspd_bills_publicfiscaldata.mspd_table_1debt_held_public_mil_amtusd_millions
mspd_marketable_publicfiscaldata.mspd_table_1debt_held_public_mil_amtusd_millions
rrp_balancenyfed.rrptotalAmtAcceptedusd
srf_usagenyfed.srftotalAmtAccepted_sumusd
sofrnyfed.sofrpercentRatepct
sofr_p99nyfed.sofrpercentPercentile99pct
effrnyfed.effrpercentRatepct
fed_target_lownyfed.effrtargetRateFrompct
fed_target_highnyfed.effrtargetRateTopct
fed_target_low_stmtfed_fomc_statementtarget range, lower bound (statement text)pct
fed_target_high_stmtfed_fomc_statementtarget range, upper bound (statement text)pct
fomc_dissentsfed_fomc_statementvotes againstcount
reservesfed_h41RESH4R_N.WWusd_millions
reserves_wavgfed_h41RESH4R_XAW_N.WWusd_millions
fed_assetsfed_h41RESPPA_N.WWusd_millions
fed_securities_outrightfed_h41RESPPALG_N.WWusd_millions
tga_h41fed_h41RESPPLLDT_N.WWusd_millions
fed_deferred_assetfed_h41RESPPLLOP_N.WWusd_millions
fed_swap_linesfed_h41RESH4SCS_N.WWusd_millions
fima_repofed_h41RESPPALGTRF_N.WWusd_millions
fed_repo_totalfed_h41RESPPALGTR_N.WWusd_millions
foreign_custodyfed_h41RESH4F_N.WWusd_millions
gdp_nominalbea.nipaA191RCusd_billions
gdp_realbea.nipaA191RXusd_billions
dgs2treasury_xml.yield_curveBC_2YEARpct
dgs10treasury_xml.yield_curveBC_10YEARpct
dgs30treasury_xml.yield_curveBC_30YEARpct
dfii10treasury_xml.real_yield_curveTC_10YEARpct
rmp_planned_mnyfed_tsy.schedulereserve management purchases (planned, per monthly period)usd
reinvest_planned_mnyfed_tsy.schedulereinvestment purchases (planned, per monthly period)usd
desk_tsy_purchases_mnyfed_tsy.opssum(totalParAmtAccepted) of Outright * Purchase operations per calendar monthusd
acm_tp10nyfed_acmACMTP10pct
atl_wage_trackeratlanta_fed.wage_trackerOverallpct
iorbfredIORBpct
m2fredM2SLusd_billions
fred_wresbalfredWRESBALusd_millions
fred_acm_tp10fredTHREEFYTP10pct
fred_gdpfredGDPusd_billions
maturity_12m_amountfiscaldata.mspd_table_3sum of marketable outstanding maturing within 365 days of the statement dateusd_millions
maturity_12m_sharefiscaldata.mspd_table_3maturity_12m_amount / total marketable outstanding × 100pct
maturity_12m_wacfiscaldata.mspd_table_3outstanding-weighted average interest rate of the paper maturing within 12 months (bills at their issue yield)pct
tic_japanticJapanusd_billions
tic_chinaticChina, Mainlandusd_billions
tic_ukticUnited Kingdomusd_billions
tic_totalticGrand Totalusd_billions
tic_foreign_officialticOf Which: Foreign Officialusd_billions
cpi_nsablsCUUR0000SA0index
ahe_privateblsCES0500000003usd
manual.fedwatch_p_hikemanualpct
manual.qra_tga_targetmanualusd_billions
manual.statutory_debt_limitmanualusd
manual.extraordinary_measures_activemanualcount
Methodology · The Fiscal Desk