Explore the frameworks

Where stress shows first: reserves, the RRP, the TGA, repo, and the Fed's foreign windows.

• Bank reserves vs GDP9.0 %
• Overnight reverse repo$125 M
• Bank reserves$2.96 T
• Standing Repo Facility$0.0 B
• SOFR − EFFR+4 bp

6 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Auctions and buybacks: are buyers showing up, and is Treasury bidding for its own paper?

• Bills as share of marketable debt22.4 %
• Latest coupon auction2.54×
• Latest buyback operation11.8× oversubscribed
• Buyback capacity this quarter$39 B
• Foreign official holdings of Treasuries$3 755.6 B

5 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Deficit → debt → interest → bigger deficit. Is interest compounding faster than receipts?

• Net interest vs national defense109 %
• 10-year Treasury yield4.84 %
• Net interest as share of receipts19.5 %
• Net interest as share of GDP3.19 %
• Total public debt$40.550 T

5 cited issues · latest 11 Oct 2026

Crisis-level deficits without a crisis.

• Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months6.0 %
• Deficit, trailing 12 months$1 993 B
• Receipts as share of GDP16.4 %

2 cited issues · latest 3 May 2026

The rate the Treasury pays, nominal growth, and the primary deficit: gaining on the debt, treading water, or losing?

• Gaining, treading water, or losing?−0.5 pp
• Nominal growth minus the rate paid+2.3 pp
• Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months2.8 %

2 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Is the bond market charging for the risk?

• 30-year Treasury yield5.250 %
• 10-year term premium (ACM)0.68 %
• 10-year real yield and breakeven2.60 %
• 2s30s curve79 bp

3 cited issues · latest 10 Aug 2026

Hike, hold or cut: does the long end take it, and does the balance sheet grow anyway?

• Last Fed actionHold
• 30-year since the last decision−12 bp
• Fed balance sheet since the last decision+$3 B
• Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)+3.2 %
• 2-year yield vs the target ceiling (the birds fly first)+46 bp

3 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Austerity, taxes, default, debasement. Which exit is actually open?

• Which door is openDoor 4 not evidenced
• Fed balance sheet, 13-week change−$422 M
• Outlays growth, trailing 12 months+5.5 %

4 cited issues · latest 11 Oct 2026

When the Treasury's needs override the Fed's intentions.

• Standing Repo Facility$0.0 B
• SOFR − EFFR+4 bp
• Bills as share of marketable debt22.4 %
• Net interest as share of receipts19.5 %
• Net interest as share of GDP3.19 %
• Synthesis of 7 gauges from other frameworks

4 cited issues · latest 11 Oct 2026

The Fed's losses are Treasury revenue that stopped arriving.

• Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)−$231.9 B

1 cited issue · latest 13 Jul 2025

Is the cushion between pay and prices gone?

• Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)−0.1 pp

2 cited issues · latest 16 Aug 2026

A toll booth, not a wall. How much headroom is left?

• Headroom under the debt limit$750 B

1 cited issue · latest 12 Jan 2025