Explore the frameworks

Where stress shows first: reserves, the RRP, the TGA, repo, and the Fed's foreign windows.

• Bank reserves vs GDP9.0 %
• Overnight reverse repo$1 B
• Bank reserves$2.92 T
• Standing Repo Facility$0.0 B
• Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)−2.0 bp

6 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Auctions and buybacks: are buyers showing up, and is Treasury bidding for its own paper?

• Latest coupon auction2.57×
• Latest buyback operation2.4× oversubscribed
• Bills as share of marketable debt22.8 %
• Buyback capacity this quarter$67 B
• Foreign official holdings of Treasuries$3 773.1 B

5 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Deficit → debt → interest → bigger deficit. Is interest compounding faster than receipts?

• Net interest vs national defense111 %
• 10-year Treasury yield4.96 %
• Net interest as share of receipts19.6 %
• Total public debt$40.102 T
• Net interest, trailing 12 months$1 054 B

4 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Crisis-level deficits without a crisis.

• Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months5.4 %
• Deficit, trailing 12 months$1 768 B
• Receipts as share of GDP16.6 %

2 cited issues · latest 3 May 2026

The rate the Treasury pays, nominal growth, and the primary deficit: gaining on the debt, treading water, or losing?

• Nominal growth minus the rate paid+3.1 pp
• Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months2.2 %
• Gaining, treading water, or losing?+0.9 pp

2 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Is the bond market charging for the risk?

• 30-year Treasury yield5.290 %
• 10-year term premium (ACM)0.64 %
• 10-year real yield and breakeven2.62 %
• 2s30s curve53 bp

3 cited issues · latest 10 Aug 2026

Hike, hold or cut: does the long end take it, and does the balance sheet grow anyway?

• Last Fed actionHike
• 30-year since the last decision−6 bp
• Fed balance sheet since the last decision$0 B
• Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)+2.6 %
• 2-year yield vs the target ceiling (the birds fly first)+76 bp

3 cited issues · latest 20 Sept 2026

Austerity, taxes, default, debasement. Which exit is actually open?

• Which door is openDoor 4 open
• Fed balance sheet, 13-week change+$10 B
• Outlays growth, trailing 12 months+0.4 %

3 cited issues · latest 24 May 2026

When the Treasury's needs override the Fed's intentions.

• Synthesis of six gauges from other frameworks

3 cited issues · latest 24 May 2026

The Fed's losses are Treasury revenue that stopped arriving.

• Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)−$232.8 B

1 cited issue · latest 13 Jul 2025

Is the cushion between pay and prices gone?

• Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)+0.4 pp

2 cited issues · latest 16 Aug 2026

A toll booth, not a wall. How much headroom is left?

• Headroom under the debt limit$1 192 B

1 cited issue · latest 12 Jan 2025