Fed remittances
WatchThe Fed's losses are Treasury revenue that stopped arriving.
Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)
watch since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
+$593 M on the weekas of 4 Nov 2026
The deferred asset rose $593 M on the week to −$231.9 B, $18 B above the cited −$250.0 B stress line; 49 months since the zero line broke.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= −$200.0 B | Project rule — approach band |
| Stress | <= −$250.0 B | base-case peak (NY Fed / Peterson / Brookings) via 13 Jul 2025 |
| Breach | <= −$300.0 B | adverse case via 13 Jul 2025 |
Explainer → The Fed Has a Big Problem The Informationist, 13 Jul 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 16 Sept 2026 unknown → Watch The deferred asset rose $147 M on the week to −$232.8 B, $17 B above the cited −$250.0 B stress line; 47 months since the zero line broke.