Fed and Treasury plumbing
Bank reserves vs GDP
+0.2 pp since 28 Octcited breach line 8.0 %
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Reserves rose 0.2 pp on the week to 9.0 %, 1.0 pp above the cited 8.0 % breach line.
The overview
The fiscal picture, in focus.
Follow the forces shaping US debt and liquidity. Every reading sourced. Every threshold explained.
Most elevated frameworkStress
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Reserves rose 0.2 pp on the week to 9.0 %, 1.0 pp above the cited 8.0 % breach line.
Bank reserves vs GDP: 9.0 %
Most recent state changeStress
10-year Treasury yield
breach → stress on 5 Nov 2026. 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.14 pp over the week to 4.84 %, 0.16 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
Next dated event
Employment Situation
Fri 6 Nov 2026, 8:30 am ET
01This week at the desk
Week 45, 2026 · full desk →02Framework gauges
Ordered by state, then by frameworkStress
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Overnight reverse repo
−$228 M since 29 Octproject stress line $25 B
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
Overnight RRP take-up fell $228 M over the week to $125 M, $25 B below the project's $25 B stress line.
Debt Spiral
Net interest vs national defense
−2 pp since 31 AugLavish stress line 100 %
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Net interest $1 052 B (trailing twelve months) vs national defense $965 B: interest is 109 % of defense.
Debt Spiral
10-year Treasury yield
−0.14 pp since 29 Octproject breach line 5.00 %
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
10-year Treasury yield fell 0.14 pp over the week to 4.84 %, 0.16 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
6 Percent Club
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months
+0.7 pp since 31 AugLavish stress line 6.0 %
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months rose 0.7 pp over the month to 6.0 %, 0.0 pp above Lavish's 6.0 % stress line.
Grow out of it
Gaining, treading water, or losing?
−1.1 pp since 30 Junproject stress line −0.5 pp
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Growth 5.9 % vs rate 3.53 %: a gap of 2.3 pp. Primary deficit 2.8 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: losing. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (12 months annualised): primary deficit 2.9 % of GDP, net −0.5 pp: losing.
Term premium
30-year Treasury yield
−0.070 pp since 29 Octproject stress line 5.270 %
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
30-year Treasury yield fell 0.070 pp over the week to 5.250 %, 0.020 pp below the project's 5.270 % stress line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Bank reserves
+$68 B since 28 Octcited watch line $3.00 T
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Reserves rose $68 B on the week to $2.96 T, $37 B below the cited $3.00 T watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Standing Repo Facility
$0.0 B since 5 Nov
Observation: 6 Nov 2026
Standing Repo Facility take-up was $0.0 B on 6 Nov 2026; 2 of the last 5 sessions saw take-up.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
SOFR − EFFR
−2 bp since 29 Octproject watch line +5 bp
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
SOFR − EFFR fell 2 bp over the week to +4 bp, 1 bp below the project's 5 bp watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)
0.0 bp since 6 OctLavish stress line 0.0 bp
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
Fed funds − IORB is unchanged at −2.0 bp (20-day mean; −2 bp on 5 Nov 2026), 2 bp below Lavish's 0.0 bp stress line. His reading: abundant near −7 bp, ample near −1 bp, positive means scarce.
Treasury supply
Bills as share of marketable debt
−0.4 pp since 31 Augcited watch line 20.0 %
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Bills as share of marketable debt fell 0.4 pp over the month to 22.4 %, 2.4 pp above the cited 20.0 % watch line.
Debt Spiral
Net interest as share of receipts
−0.1 pp since 31 Augcited watch line 19.0 %
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Net interest as share of receipts fell 0.1 pp over the month to 19.5 %, 0.5 pp above the cited 19.0 % watch line.
Debt Spiral
Net interest as share of GDP
−0.01 pp since 31 Augproject watch line 3.20 %
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Net interest $1 052 B over the trailing twelve months is 3.19 % of GDP, 0.01 pp below the project's 3.20 % watch line. Reference points he showed: 1991 peak (Bianco, OMB) 3.20 %; CRFB FY2026 estimate, record 3.40 %.
Fed remittances
Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)
+$593 M since 28 Octcited stress line −$250.0 B
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
The deferred asset rose $593 M on the week to −$231.9 B, $18 B above the cited −$250.0 B stress line; 49 months since the zero line broke.
Debt ceiling
Headroom under the debt limit
−$302 B since 5 Octproject stress line $500 B
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Headroom under the $41.104 T limit is $750 B, $250 B above the project's $500 B stress line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
QT-to-QE trigger
as of 5 Nov 2026
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
QT-to-QE trigger: not triggered (rrp_balance stress; reserves_level watch).
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Treasury General Account (opening balance)
−$114 B since 28 Oct
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
The TGA opening balance fell $114 B over the week to $938 B.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
TGA build, 4 weeks
−$63 B since 28 Octproject watch line $300 B
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
The TGA opening balance changed +$53 B over four weeks, $247 B below the project's $300 B watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Reserve-management purchases (the Desk's schedule)
$0 B since 15 Sept
Observation: 15 Oct 2026
Reserve-management purchases: the Desk's schedule is $0 B for the period from 15 Oct 2026; none since 14 Aug 2026 (last schedule $10 B per period). Outright Treasury purchases settled: $13.1 B in Oct 2026 (all purposes, including reinvestment of agency principal).
Fed and Treasury plumbing
FIMA repo (foreign official)
$0.00 B since 28 OctLavish watch line $0.00 B
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
The H.4.1 line for 4 Nov 2026 is zero-equivalent at $0.00 B (below the $50 M rounding band).
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Central bank swap lines
+$13 M since 28 OctLavish watch line $500 M
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
The H.4.1 line for 4 Nov 2026 shows $169 M, $331 M below Lavish's $500 M watch line.
Treasury supply
Latest coupon auction
as of 8 Oct 2026
Observation: 8 Oct 2026
29-Year 10-Month auction on 8 Oct 2026: bid-to-cover 2.54× vs 2.42× trailing-12 mean; dealers 6.8 %, indirects 72.3 %; high yield 5.618 %; tail not computed.
Treasury supply
Latest buyback operation
as of 5 Nov 2026
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
1Mo to 2Y buyback on 5 Nov 2026: $47.32 B offered against a $4.0 B cap (11.8× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $4.00 B (the full cap).
Treasury supply
Buyback capacity this quarter
−$32.3 B on the quarter
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
8 operations scheduled 1 Oct–5 Nov 2026 with caps totalling $38.8 B ($39 B liquidity support, $0 B cash management).
Treasury supply
Foreign official holdings of Treasuries
−$17.5 B since 1 Jul
Observation: 1 Aug 2026 · monthly holdings, published with a lag
Foreign official holdings fell $17.5 B on the month to $3 755.6 B (no consecutive monthly rise).
Debt Spiral
Total public debt
+$301 B since 5 Oct
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Total debt rose $301 B over the month to $40.550 T; the last trillion took 136 days.
Debt Spiral
Net interest, trailing 12 months
−$2 B since 31 Augproject watch line $1 250 B
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Net interest over the trailing twelve months fell $2 B to $1 052 B, $198 B below the project's $1 250 B watch line.
Debt Spiral
Gross interest, trailing 12 months
+$1 B since 31 Aug
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Gross interest over the trailing twelve months rose $1 B to $1 360 B; net interest $1 052 B, a gross-minus-net difference of $308 B.
Debt Spiral
Average rate on interest-bearing debt
+0.168 pp since 30 Sept
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Average rate on interest-bearing debt rose 0.168 pp over the year to 3.531 %.
Debt Spiral
Marketable debt maturing within 12 months
as of 30 Sept 2026
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
$10.6 T of marketable debt matures within 12 months (33 % of the stock) at a weighted-average coupon of 3.41 %; recent coupon auctions cleared 1.40 pp higher.
6 Percent Club
Deficit, trailing 12 months
+$225 B since 31 Aug
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Deficit, trailing 12 months rose $225 B over the month to $1 993 B.
6 Percent Club
Receipts as share of GDP
−0.4 pp since 30 Sept
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Receipts as share of GDP is 16.4 %, inside the 16 %–19 % band (inside = Hauser's Law holding (Door 2 locked)).
Grow out of it
Nominal growth minus the rate paid
−0.6 pp since 30 Jun
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Nominal GDP growth 5.9 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.53 %: a gap of +2.3 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output).
Grow out of it
Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months
+0.7 pp since 31 Aug
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months rose 0.7 pp over the month to 2.8 %.
Term premium
10-year term premium (ACM)
−0.24 pp since 2 Octproject watch line 0.75 %
Observation: 3 Nov 2026
10-year term premium (ACM) fell 0.24 pp over the month to 0.68 %, 0.07 pp below the project's 0.75 % watch line.
Term premium
10-year real yield and breakeven
−0.03 pp on the week
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
10-year real yield 2.60 % (−0.03 pp over the week); breakeven 2.24 % (−0.11 pp).
Term premium
2s30s curve
+8 bp since 29 Oct
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
2s30s curve rose 8 bp over the week to 79 bp, with no threshold set.
Three Trap Doors
Last Fed action
as of 28 Oct 2026
Observation: 28 Oct 2026
The Fed held the target range on 28 Oct 2026: hold at 3.75 %–4.00 %, 2 dissents (FOMC statement).
Three Trap Doors
30-year since the last decision
as of 5 Nov 2026
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
30-year since the last decision: −12 bp since the hold on 28 Oct 2026 (5.37 % → 5.25 %).
Three Trap Doors
Fed balance sheet since the last decision
as of 4 Nov 2026
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Fed balance sheet since the last decision: +$3 B since the hold on 28 Oct 2026 ($6.75 T → $6.75 T).
Three Trap Doors
Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)
+1.0 pp since 5 Aug
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Securities held outright are +3.2 % over four quarters (the four-quarter growth rate changed +1.0 pp over the quarter); his Response line is 6 %.
Three Trap Doors
2-year yield vs the target ceiling (the birds fly first)
−15 bp since 29 Oct
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
2-year 4.46 %, 46 bp above the target ceiling of 4.00 %: the market is priced for tightening beyond the current range (above the ceiling for 198 days).
Three Trap Doors
Which trap door, and is the floor showing?
as of 5 Nov 2026
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
Door pulled: hold. The balance sheet is +$3 B and the 30-year is −12 bp since 28 Oct 2026: the floor is not showing. Four-quarter holdings growth 3.2 % (his Response line: 6 %).
Four Doors
Which door is open
as of 6 Nov 2026
Observation: 6 Nov 2026
Door 4 not evidenced this week: Buyback capacity this quarter change versus prior quarter: −$32.3 B (tracking); Fed balance sheet, 13-week change: −$422 M (calm).
Four Doors
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change
−$8 B since 28 Octproject watch line $50 B
Observation: 4 Nov 2026
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $8 B over the week to −$422 M, $50 B below the project's $50 B watch line.
Four Doors
Outlays growth, trailing 12 months
+5.1 pp since 31 Aug
Observation: 30 Sept 2026
Outlays growth, trailing 12 months rose 5.1 pp over the month to +5.5 %, with no threshold set.
No fresh data
−0.5 pp since 1 AugLavish stress line 0.0 pp
Observation: 1 Sept 2026
as of 1 Sept 2026 Feed delayed
No wage-tracker or CPI print since 1 Sep 2026.
Watchlist
Open items nearest their resolution date
Open
Are the expanded buybacks funded from TGA cash rather than new bills?
A CNBC report said so; Treasury has not confirmed. Evidence to weigh: the TGA path around operation days against bill issuance.
Resolves on 5 Nov 2026 via editor · from The Monday Brief: Last Words Before Fed Blackout Period (31 Aug 2026)
Open
Running against him: do reserves stop falling, fed funds sit under IORB and the standing repo facility go unused through Q4?
The one test currently running against the thesis. At send (16 Sep): fed funds printed 2 bp under IORB, the standing repo facility had gone days without a taker, and reserves were 9.3 % of GDP (week to 16 Sep) against the Fed staff's 10 % line. Closed by the editor on 31 Dec (his next quarterly) from the states of the EFFR − IORB, standing-repo and reserves-to-GDP gauges on that date: plumbing still loose = contrary to the thesis; tightening = as expected.
Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via editor · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Open
Does a government that cut its long-end supply see its long yield fall?
At send: Britain and Japan both cut long-end issuance in 2025 and both long yields rose (30-year gilt 5.93 % on 10 Sep, a 1998 level; 10-year JGB above 3 % on 2 Sep, first since 1996). evidence_source: owner-entered. No free 30-year gilt or JGB feed is verified, so the editor closes this on 31 Dec with citations: long yields lower after the cuts = contrary; not lower = as expected.
Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via editor · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Open
Does the Fed's four-quarter holdings growth cross his 6 % 'Response' line by year-end?
At send: 3.0 % through Q1 2026, and reserve-management purchases stopped on 14 Aug. Resolves from the four-quarter growth of securities held outright (H.4.1): crossing 6 % resolves at once as expected (a balance-sheet response); still under 6 % on 31 Dec resolves contrary.
Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via gauge state · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Latest resolutions
How earlier watch items turned out
Contrary
Does the enlarged long-end buyback survive the 4 Nov refunding at $6 B per operation, or is it cut or lapsed?
At send (20 Sep): the first enlarged operation on 10 Sep had a $6 B cap, $10.5 B offered and $5.19 B taken. Resolves from the long-end operations through 4 Nov and the Q4 tentative buyback schedule published at the refunding: 'kept' if long-end caps of at least $6 B per operation persist (as expected), 'cut' if they are lower (mixed), 'lapsed' if no long-end operations are scheduled (contrary). The $2 B caps on the pre-August schedule rows for 27 Oct and 4 Nov are not read as a cut until the Q4 schedule replaces them.
Resolved 4 Nov 2026 via the post-refunding buyback schedule · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Contrary
Does the FOMC hike again on 28 Oct after the September CPI?
He writes that a hotter September CPI (released 2026-10-14; August was 3.4 % headline, 2.4 % ex food and energy) would likely raise the probability of another hike this month. September CPI, released 2026-10-14: 3.7 % headline and 2.6 % ex food and energy, year over year, not seasonally adjusted (BLS, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm; CUUR0000SA0 336.940 vs 324.800, CUUR0000SA0L1E 339.287 vs 330.804), hotter than August on both. Hike = as expected (his conditional lean); hold = contrary; a cut = contrary. Resolves from the upper bound of the target range in the FOMC statement dated 2026-10-28: at or above 4.25 % is a hike from the current 3.75-4.00 % range.
Resolved 28 Oct 2026 via data release · from What Is Fiscal Dominance? (11 Oct 2026)
- Observation:
- 2026-10-28
- Value:
- 4.000000
- Consecutive rises:
- 0
Assessment pending
Does the October TIC release confirm Japan sold Treasuries to defend the yen?
The FIMA line stayed at zero through August, which points to Tokyo selling rather than borrowing dollars. The August TIC data (published around 16 Oct) is where that shows up in Japan's holdings.
Resolved 16 Oct 2026 via data release · from The Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion (8 Sept 2026)
Result recorded; no pass/fail rule was declared for this watch.
- Observation:
- 2026-08-01
- Value:
- 1068.300000
- Consecutive rises:
- 0