Fed and Treasury plumbing
Bank reserves vs GDP
−0.4 % since 9 Septcited breach line 8.0 %
Reserves fell 0.4 pp on the week to 9.0 %, 1.0 pp above the cited 8.0 % breach line.
The overview
The fiscal picture, in focus.
Follow the forces shaping US debt and liquidity. Every reading sourced. Every threshold explained.
Most elevated frameworkStress
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Reserves fell 0.4 pp on the week to 9.0 %, 1.0 pp above the cited 8.0 % breach line.
Bank reserves vs GDP: 9.0 %
Most recent state changeStress
Which door is open
unknown → stress on 22 Sept 2026. Door 4 open: fed_assets_13w_change +$10 B (calm); buyback_quarter_capacity +$67 B (tracking); doors austerity, taxes locked.
Next dated event
$75 B 6w
Tue 22 Sept 2026, 11:30 am ET
01This week at the desk
Week 39, 2026 · full desk →Mon21
- 11:30 am$92 B 13w Bill (reopening)
- 11:30 am$79 B 26w Bill
Tue22Today
- 11:30 am$75 B 6w Bill (reopening)
- 1:00 pm$69 B 2y Note
Wed23
- 11:30 am17w Bill
- 1:00 pm$28 B 1y 10m Note (reopening)
- 1:00 pm2y Note (reopening)
- 1:00 pm$70 B 5y Note
Thu24
- 11:30 am4w Bill (reopening)
- 11:30 am8w Bill (reopening)
- 1:00 pm$44 B 7y Note
- 1:40 pmBuyback 20Y to 30Y
- 4:30 pmH.4.1 (Fed balance sheet)
Fri25
Nothing scheduled
Sat26
No scheduled events
Sun27
No scheduled events
02Framework gauges
Ordered by state, then by frameworkStress
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Overnight reverse repo
−$1 B since 14 Septproject stress line $25 B
Overnight RRP take-up fell $838 M over the week to $1 B, $24 B below the project's $25 B stress line.
Debt Spiral
Net interest vs national defense
+0 % since 31 JulLavish stress line 100 %
Net interest $1 054 B (trailing twelve months) vs national defense $952 B: interest is 111 % of defense.
Debt Spiral
10-year Treasury yield
−0.01 % since 14 Septproject breach line 5.00 %
10-year Treasury yield fell 0.01 pp over the week to 4.96 %, 0.04 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
Term premium
30-year Treasury yield
−0.050 % since 14 Septproject stress line 5.270 %
30-year Treasury yield fell 0.050 pp over the week to 5.290 %, 0.020 pp above the project's 5.270 % stress line.
Four Doors
Which door is open
as of 22 Sept 2026
Door 4 open: fed_assets_13w_change +$10 B (calm); buyback_quarter_capacity +$67 B (tracking); doors austerity, taxes locked.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Bank reserves
−$0.11 T since 9 Septcited watch line $3.00 T
Reserves fell $115 B on the week to $2.92 T, $78 B below the cited $3.00 T watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Standing Repo Facility
−$0.0 B since 21 Sept
Standing Repo Facility take-up was $0.0 B on 22 Sep 2026; 4 of the last 5 sessions saw take-up.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)
0.0 bp since 21 AugLavish stress line 0.0 bp
Fed funds − IORB is unchanged at −2.0 bp (20-day mean; −2 bp on 21 Sep 2026), 2 bp below Lavish's 0.0 bp stress line. His reading: abundant near −7 bp, ample near −1 bp, positive means scarce.
Treasury supply
Latest coupon auction
as of 15 Sept 2026
19-Year 11-Month auction on 15 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.57× vs 2.64× trailing-12 mean; dealers 16.9 %, indirects 52.5 %; high yield 5.420 %; tail not computed.
Treasury supply
Latest buyback operation
as of 17 Sept 2026
7Y to 10Y buyback on 17 Sep 2026: $9.74 B offered against a $4.0 B cap (2.4× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $2.39 B (−$1.62 B vs the cap).
Treasury supply
Bills as share of marketable debt
+0.6 % since 31 Julproject stress line 25.0 %
Bills as share of marketable debt rose 0.6 pp over the month to 22.8 %, 2.2 pp below the project's 25.0 % stress line.
Debt Spiral
Net interest as share of receipts
−0.2 % since 31 Julcited watch line 19.0 %
Net interest as share of receipts fell 0.2 pp over the month to 19.6 %, 0.6 pp above the cited 19.0 % watch line.
6 Percent Club
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months
−0.5 % since 31 JulLavish stress line 6.0 %
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 5.4 %, 0.6 pp below Lavish's 6.0 % stress line.
Fed remittances
Fed deferred asset (remittances due to Treasury)
+$0.1 B since 9 Septcited stress line −$250.0 B
The deferred asset rose $147 M on the week to −$232.8 B, $17 B above the cited −$250.0 B stress line; 47 months since the zero line broke.
Watch
+0.1 pp since 1 Julproject watch line +0.5 pp
Wage growth (4.1 %) minus CPI (3.7 %) is +0.4 pp, 0.1 pp below the project's 0.5 pp watch line.
Debt ceiling
Headroom under the debt limit
−$86 B since 19 Augproject watch line $1 500 B
Headroom under the $41.104 T limit is $1 192 B, $308 B below the project's $1 500 B watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
QT-to-QE trigger
as of 21 Sept 2026
QT-to-QE trigger: not triggered (rrp_balance stress; reserves_level watch).
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Treasury General Account
+$155 B since 11 Sept
The TGA rose $155 B over the week to $973 B.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
TGA build, 4 weeks
+$186 B since 11 Septproject watch line $300 B
The TGA changed +$186 B over four weeks, $262 B below the project's $300 B watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
SOFR − EFFR
−2 bp since 14 Septproject watch line +5 bp
SOFR − EFFR fell 2 bp over the week to −3 bp, 8 bp below the project's 5 bp watch line.
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Reserve-management purchases (the Desk's schedule)
$0 B since 14 Aug
Reserve-management purchases: the Desk's schedule is $0 B for the period from 15 Sep 2026; none since 14 Aug 2026 (last schedule $10 B per period). Outright Treasury purchases settled: $28.7 B in Aug 2026 (all purposes, including reinvestment of agency principal).
Fed and Treasury plumbing
FIMA repo (foreign official)
$0.00 B since 9 SeptLavish watch line $0.00 B
The H.4.1 line for 16 Sep 2026 is zero-equivalent at $0.00 B (below the $50 M rounding band).
Fed and Treasury plumbing
Central bank swap lines
−$7 M since 9 SeptLavish watch line $500 M
The H.4.1 line for 16 Sep 2026 shows $94 M, $406 M below Lavish's $500 M watch line.
Treasury supply
Buyback capacity this quarter
−$39.0 B on the quarter
18 operations scheduled 1 Jul–29 Sep 2026 with caps totalling $67.0 B ($42 B liquidity support, $25 B cash management).
Treasury supply
Foreign official holdings of Treasuries
−$5.0 B since 1 Jun
as of 1 Jul 2026 Feed delayed
Foreign official holdings fell $5.0 B on the month to $3 773.1 B (no consecutive monthly rise).
Debt Spiral
Total public debt
+$0.089 T since 19 Aug
Total debt rose $89 B over the month to $40.102 T; the last trillion took 113 days.
Debt Spiral
Net interest, trailing 12 months
−$7 B since 31 Julproject watch line $1 250 B
Net interest over the trailing twelve months fell $7 B to $1 054 B, $196 B below the project's $1 250 B watch line.
Debt Spiral
Gross interest, trailing 12 months
−$14 B since 31 Jul
Gross interest over the trailing twelve months fell $14 B to $1 359 B; net interest $1 054 B, so $305 B was interest received by trust funds.
Debt Spiral
Average rate on interest-bearing debt
+0.118 % since 31 Aug
Average rate on interest-bearing debt rose 0.118 pp over the year to 3.490 %.
Debt Spiral
Marketable debt maturing within 12 months
as of 31 Aug 2026
$10.8 T of marketable debt matures within 12 months (34 % of the stock) at a weighted-average coupon of 3.37 %; recent coupon auctions cleared 1.27 pp higher.
6 Percent Club
Deficit, trailing 12 months
−$178 B since 31 Jul
Deficit, trailing 12 months fell $178 B over the month to $1 768 B.
6 Percent Club
Receipts as share of GDP
−0.2 % since 31 Aug
Receipts as share of GDP is 16.6 %, inside the 16 %–19 % band (inside = Hauser's Law holding (Door 2 locked)).
Grow out of it
Nominal growth minus the rate paid
−0.1 pp since 31 May
Nominal GDP growth 6.6 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.49 %: a gap of +3.1 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output).
Grow out of it
Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months
−0.5 % since 31 Jul
Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 2.2 %.
Grow out of it
Gaining, treading water, or losing?
−0.4 pp since 31 Mayproject watch line +0.5 pp
Growth 6.6 % vs rate 3.49 %: a gap of 3.1 pp. Primary deficit 2.2 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: gaining. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (11 months annualised): primary deficit 3.2 % of GDP, net −0.1 pp: treading water.
Term premium
10-year term premium (ACM)
−0.13 % since 19 Augproject watch line 0.75 %
10-year term premium (ACM) fell 0.13 pp over the month to 0.64 %, 0.11 pp below the project's 0.75 % watch line.
Term premium
10-year real yield and breakeven
+0.02 % on the week
10-year real yield 2.62 % (+0.02 % over the week); breakeven 2.34 % (−0.03 pp).
Term premium
2s30s curve
−16 bp since 14 Sept
2s30s curve fell 16 bp over the week to 53 bp, with no threshold set.
Three Trap Doors
Last Fed action
as of 16 Sept 2026
The Fed raised the target range on 16 Sep 2026: +25 bp to 3.75 %–4.00 %, unanimous (FOMC statement).
Three Trap Doors
30-year since the last decision
as of 21 Sept 2026
30-year since the last decision: −6 bp since the 25 bp hike on 16 Sep 2026 (5.35 % → 5.29 %).
Three Trap Doors
Fed balance sheet since the last decision
as of 16 Sept 2026
Fed balance sheet since the last decision: $0 B since the 25 bp hike on 16 Sep 2026 ($6.75 T → $6.75 T).
Three Trap Doors
Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)
+1.3 % since 17 Jun
Securities held outright are +2.6 % over four quarters (+1.3 % over the quarter); his Response line is 6 %.
Three Trap Doors
2-year yield vs the target ceiling (the birds fly first)
−14 bp since 14 Sept
2-year 4.76 %, 76 bp above the target ceiling of 4.00 %: the market is priced for tightening beyond the current range (above the ceiling for 153 days).
Three Trap Doors
Which trap door, and is the floor showing?
as of 21 Sept 2026
Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is $0 B and the 30-year is −6 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is not showing. A hike with a flat or shrinking book is the one branch of the framework where the floor claim is not yet supported. Four-quarter holdings growth 2.6 % (his Response line: 6 %).
Four Doors
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change
−$5 B since 9 Septproject watch line $50 B
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $5 B over the week to +$10 B, $40 B below the project's $50 B watch line.
Four Doors
Outlays growth, trailing 12 months
−2.3 % since 31 Jul
Outlays growth, trailing 12 months fell 2.3 pp over the month to +0.4 %, with no threshold set.
Watchlist
Open items nearest their resolution date
Open
Does the October TIC release confirm Japan sold Treasuries to defend the yen?
The FIMA line stayed at zero through August, which points to Tokyo selling rather than borrowing dollars. The August TIC data (published around 16 Oct) is where that shows up in Japan's holdings.
Resolves on 16 Oct 2026 via data release · from The Monday Brief: Four Days and $119 Billion (8 Sept 2026)
Open
Do foreign official Treasury holdings rise, in dollars, on two consecutive TIC prints (July on 16 Sep, August on 16 Oct)?
His falsification test: two consecutive monthly rises would cut against the thesis. At send the July print was already down ($3,773.1 B vs $3,778.1 B in June and $3,845.9 B in May), so the October print can only fail to break the thesis. Resolves from the TIC 'Of Which: Foreign Official' row: fewer than two consecutive rises = as expected (thesis survives); two or more = contrary. The Japan-specific twin is the 16 Oct TIC item.
Resolves on 16 Oct 2026 via data release · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Open
Does the enlarged long-end buyback survive the 4 Nov refunding at $6 B per operation, or is it cut or lapsed?
At send (20 Sep): the first enlarged operation on 10 Sep had a $6 B cap, $10.5 B offered and $5.19 B taken. Resolves from the long-end operations through 4 Nov and the Q4 tentative buyback schedule published at the refunding: 'kept' if long-end caps of at least $6 B per operation persist (as expected), 'cut' if they are lower (mixed), 'lapsed' if no long-end operations are scheduled (contrary). The $2 B caps on the pre-August schedule rows for 27 Oct and 4 Nov are not read as a cut until the Q4 schedule replaces them.
Resolves on 4 Nov 2026 via the post-refunding buyback schedule · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Open
Are the expanded buybacks funded from TGA cash rather than new bills?
A CNBC report said so; Treasury has not confirmed. Evidence to weigh: the TGA path around operation days against bill issuance.
Resolves on 5 Nov 2026 via editor · from The Monday Brief: Last Words Before Fed Blackout Period (31 Aug 2026)
Open
Running against him: do reserves stop falling, fed funds sit under IORB and the standing repo facility go unused through Q4?
The one test currently running against the thesis. At send (16 Sep): fed funds printed 2 bp under IORB, the standing repo facility had gone days without a taker, and reserves were 9.3 % of GDP (week to 16 Sep) against the Fed staff's 10 % line. Closed by the editor on 31 Dec (his next quarterly) from the states of the EFFR − IORB, standing-repo and reserves-to-GDP gauges on that date: plumbing still loose = contrary to the thesis; tightening = as expected.
Resolves on 31 Dec 2026 via editor · from The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab (20 Sept 2026)
Latest resolutions
How earlier watch items turned out
As expected
Does the $25 B 30-year auction on 13 Aug clear weakly, confirming term premium is here to stay?
Pre-registered test: weakness at the 30-year auction (a tail, a low bid-to-cover, a heavy dealer take) would say the term premium is structural rather than a passing scare.
Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: The Long End Didn't Take It (10 Aug 2026)
No data
Belly week without a Treasury bid: the $69 B 2-year on 25 Aug
The belly is outside the expanded buyback window, so these auctions meet the market on their own.
Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: Friday at Ten (24 Aug 2026)
No data
Belly week without a Treasury bid: the $70 B 5-year on 26 Aug
Resolved 22 Sept 2026 via TreasuryDirect auction result · from The Monday Brief: Friday at Ten (24 Aug 2026)