Three Trap Doors
TrackingHike, hold or cut: does the long end take it, and does the balance sheet grow anyway?
Last Fed action
The Fed raised the target range on 16 Sep 2026: +25 bp to 3.75 %–4.00 %, unanimous (FOMC statement).
Decision dates come from config/calendar.yaml and the Fed's FOMC calendar page. The action is read from the target range in the FOMC statement on the decision day, cross-checked against the New York Fed's EFFR record for the next business day; until one of those exists it is pending, never a hold. Source: FOMC statement (EFFR cross-check: match).
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → What If The Fed Raises Rates The Informationist, 24 May 2026 · CSV · JSON
30-year since the last decision
30-year since the last decision: −6 bp since the 25 bp hike on 16 Sep 2026 (5.35 % → 5.29 %).
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → What If The Fed Raises Rates The Informationist, 24 May 2026 · CSV · JSON
Fed balance sheet since the last decision
Fed balance sheet since the last decision: $0 B since the 25 bp hike on 16 Sep 2026 ($6.75 T → $6.75 T).
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → How to Read a Fed That Stopped Talking The Informationist, 21 Jun 2026 · CSV · JSON
Fed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)
Securities held outright are +2.6 % over four quarters (+1.3 % over the quarter); his Response line is 6 %.
Thresholds, rules and references
References: his Response line +6.0 % (lavish, 20 Sept 2026: “under the 6% that would mark a Response”) · his reading, Q1 2026 +3.0 % (lavish, 20 Sept 2026)
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
2-year yield vs the target ceiling (the birds fly first)
2-year 4.76 %, 76 bp above the target ceiling of 4.00 %: the market is priced for tightening beyond the current range (above the ceiling for 153 days).
Thresholds, rules and references
References: one hike priced (project marker) +25 bp (project) · one cut priced (project marker) −25 bp (project)
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
Which trap door, and is the floor showing?
calm since 21 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Door pulled: hike. The balance sheet is $0 B and the 30-year is −6 bp since 16 Sep 2026: the floor is not showing. A hike with a flat or shrinking book is the one branch of the framework where the floor claim is not yet supported. Four-quarter holdings growth 2.6 % (his Response line: 6 %).
- TrackingLast Fed actionHikeas of 16 Sept 2026
- Tracking30-year since the last decision−6 bpas of 21 Sept 2026
- TrackingFed balance sheet since the last decision$0 Bas of 16 Sept 2026
- TrackingFed holdings, four-quarter growth (the 6 % line)+2.6 %as of 16 Sept 2026context, not in the rule
Thresholds, rules and references
Rule fed_assets_since_fomc.value > 0 and long_end_since_fomc.value >= 0 — project rule: his claim is that every action ends in long-end balance-sheet expansion; 'floor showing' = book growing while the long end has not fallen since the decision. His 6 % four-quarter holdings-growth 'Response' line is shown beside the rule, not used by it (owner decision pending)
Explainer → What If The Fed Raises Rates The Informationist, 24 May 2026 · CSV · JSON