Fed and Treasury plumbing
StressWhere stress shows first: reserves, the RRP, the TGA, repo, and the Fed's foreign windows.
Bank reserves vs GDP
stress since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Reserves rose 0.2 pp on the week to 9.0 %, 1.0 pp above the cited 8.0 % breach line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= 11.0 % | Project rule — 1 pp buffer above the cited 10 % line |
| Stress | <= 10.0 % | Jerome Powell (2025-10-19); Fed staff's 10 %-of-GDP line (stated 2026-08-26, relayed in Institutional No. 1) via 19 Oct 2025 |
| Breach | <= 8.0 % | Lavish's 'Danger Zone' chart via 2 Feb 2025 |
References: 2019 repo break 7.0 % (Lavish, 19 Oct 2025)
Explainer → Why QT is Dead and QE is Coming The Informationist, 19 Oct 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 16 Sept 2026 unknown → Stress Reserves fell 0.4 pp on the week to 9.0 %, 1.0 pp above the cited 8.0 % breach line.
Bank reserves
watch since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Reserves rose $68 B on the week to $2.96 T, $37 B below the cited $3.00 T watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= $3.00 T | Kobeissi Letter comfort band $3.0–3.3T via 5 Jan 2025 |
| Stress | <= $2.80 T | Lavish, 5 Jan 2025 — “bank reserves dip below the Fed's $2.8T floor” |
| Breach | <= $2.70 T | Lavish, 23 Nov 2025 — “The Fed's effective floor is roughly $2.7 trillion.” |
Explainer → The Fed's Favorite Lie: This Isn't QE The Informationist, 2 Nov 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 16 Sept 2026 unknown → Watch Reserves fell $115 B on the week to $2.92 T, $78 B below the cited $3.00 T watch line.
Overnight reverse repo
stress since 21 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Overnight RRP take-up fell $228 M over the week to $125 M, $25 B below the project's $25 B stress line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= $100 B | Lavish, 2 Feb 2025 — “The RRP is drained, only ~$100B left there.” |
| Stress | <= $25 B | Project rule — effectively empty; his 2025-10-19 reading was ~$5B |
Explainer → Why QT is Dead and QE is Coming The Informationist, 19 Oct 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Stress Overnight RRP take-up fell $838 M over the week to $1 B, $24 B below the project's $25 B stress line.
QT-to-QE trigger
calm since 21 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
QT-to-QE trigger: not triggered (rrp_balance stress; reserves_level watch).
- StressOvernight reverse repo$125 Mas of 5 Nov 2026
- WatchBank reserves$2.96 Tas of 4 Nov 2026
Thresholds, rules and references
Rule rrp_balance.value <= 25e9 and reserves_usd.value <= 2.8e12 — stated by Lavish — “once RRP approaches zero and reserves dip below the Fed's $2.8T floor”
Explainer → Is The Fed About to End QT (and Start QE Again) The Informationist, 5 Jan 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm QT-to-QE trigger: not triggered (rrp_balance stress; reserves_level watch).
Treasury General Account (opening balance)
The TGA opening balance fell $114 B over the week to $938 B.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Treasury's Checking Account The Informationist, 9 Nov 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 18 Sept 2026 unknown → Tracking The TGA rose $155 B over the week to $973 B.
TGA build, 4 weeks
calm since 18 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
The TGA opening balance changed +$53 B over four weeks, $247 B below the project's $300 B watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= $300 B | Project rule — ≈ 2× the ~$160B/month TGA drain he documented for Jun–Nov 2025 |
| Stress | >= $500 B | Project rule — the $640B-in-under-four-months pace he called 'a shop-vac of liquidity' |
Explainer → The Treasury's Checking Account The Informationist, 9 Nov 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 18 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm The TGA changed +$186 B over four weeks, $262 B below the project's $300 B watch line.
Standing Repo Facility
watch since 22 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Standing Repo Facility take-up was $0.0 B on 6 Nov 2026; 2 of the last 5 sessions saw take-up.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | any(last(5) > 0) | Lavish, 2 Nov 2025 — “when usage starts climbing and staying elevated” |
| Stress | count(last(5) > 10e9) >= 3 | Project rule — persistent, not one-off |
| Breach | any(last(5) >= 50e9) | Project rule — the 2025-10-31 record ($50.35B) as the bar |
Explainer → The Fed's Favorite Lie: This Isn't QE The Informationist, 2 Nov 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 22 Sept 2026 unknown → Watch Standing Repo Facility take-up was $0.0 B on 22 Sep 2026; 4 of the last 5 sessions saw take-up.
SOFR − EFFR
watch since 26 Oct 2026 (was calm)
SOFR − EFFR fell 2 bp over the week to +4 bp, 1 bp below the project's 5 bp watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= +5 bp | Project rule — SOFR trading above fed funds |
| Stress | >= +19 bp | Lavish, 19 Oct 2025 — “SOFR-EFFR at +0.19 … this isn't a spike, it's a regime change” |
| Breach | >= +50 bp | Project rule — September-2019-type dislocation |
Explainer → Why QT is Dead and QE is Coming The Informationist, 19 Oct 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 26 Oct 2026 calm → Watch SOFR − EFFR rose 6 bp over the week to +5 bp, 0 bp at the project's 5 bp watch line.
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm SOFR − EFFR fell 2 bp over the week to −3 bp, 8 bp below the project's 5 bp watch line.
Fed funds − IORB (the confirmation row)
watch since 21 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Fed funds − IORB is unchanged at −2.0 bp (20-day mean; −2 bp on 5 Nov 2026), 2 bp below Lavish's 0.0 bp stress line. His reading: abundant near −7 bp, ample near −1 bp, positive means scarce.
A loose reading can mean surplus cash or window stigma: the standing repo facility is open only to primary dealers and the banks that have signed up, so a positive spread is read against the SRF gauge.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | > −5.0 bp | Project rule — inside the 'abundant' zone he anchors near −7 bp and approaching the 'ample' anchor near −1 bp; the anchors are descriptive, the line is ours |
| Stress | >= 0.0 bp | Lavish, 20 Sept 2026 — “scarce, just like 2019” |
| Breach | >= +10.0 bp | Project rule — a 2019-type dislocation: fed funds trading through IORB by double digits |
References: abundant (his anchor) −7.0 bp (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026) · ample (his anchor) −1.0 bp (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026)
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Watch Fed funds − IORB is unchanged at −2.0 bp (20-day mean; −2 bp on 21 Sep 2026), 2 bp below Lavish's 0.0 bp stress line. His reading: abundant near −7 bp, ample near −1 bp, positive means scarce.
Reserve-management purchases (the Desk's schedule)
Reserve-management purchases: the Desk's schedule is $0 B for the period from 15 Oct 2026; none since 14 Aug 2026 (last schedule $10 B per period). Outright Treasury purchases settled: $13.1 B in Oct 2026 (all purposes, including reinvestment of agency principal).
The Desk's API does not label whether an outright purchase is a reserve-management or a reinvestment purchase; the schedule figure comes from the Desk's operational-details page and the settled amount is all purposes.
Thresholds, rules and references
References: December-2025 start 40e9 (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026)
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 15 Sept 2026 unknown → Tracking Reserve-management purchases: the Desk's schedule is $0 B for the period from 15 Sep 2026; none since 14 Aug 2026 (last schedule $10 B per period). Outright Treasury purchases settled: $28.7 B in Aug 2026 (all purposes, including reinvestment of agency principal).
FIMA repo (foreign official)
calm since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
The H.4.1 line for 4 Nov 2026 is zero-equivalent at $0.00 B (below the $50 M rounding band).
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | > $0.00 B | Lavish, 9 Aug 2026 — “This story changes completely the day that zero becomes a number.” |
| Stress | >= $10.00 B | Project rule — a real draw, not a test |
| Breach | >= $60.00 B | Fed FIMA limit per counterparty via 9 Aug 2026 |
Explainer → The Yen Defense: What $87 Billion Actually Bought The Informationist, 9 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 16 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm The H.4.1 line for 16 Sep 2026 is zero-equivalent at $0.00 B (below the $50 M rounding band).
Central bank swap lines
calm since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
The H.4.1 line for 4 Nov 2026 shows $169 M, $331 M below Lavish's $500 M watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | > $500 M | Lavish, 3 Aug 2026 — “anything over $500M” |
| Stress | >= $10 000 M | Project rule — order of magnitude above the watch level |
| Breach | >= $100 000 M | Project rule — crisis-scale usage (2008/2020) |
Explainer → The Yen Defense: What $87 Billion Actually Bought The Informationist, 9 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 16 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm The H.4.1 line for 16 Sep 2026 shows $94 M, $406 M below Lavish's $500 M watch line.