Real wages
WatchIs the cushion between pay and prices gone?
Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)
watch since 1 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
+0.1 pp on the monthas of 1 Aug 2026
Wage growth (4.1 %) minus CPI (3.7 %) is +0.4 pp, 0.1 pp below the project's 0.5 pp watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= +0.5 pp | Project rule — his +0.4 reading was 'a rounding error' |
| Stress | <= 0.0 pp | Lavish, 16 Aug 2026 — “Whatever cushion you had between what you earn and what things cost is just about gone now” |
| Breach | <= −1.0 pp | Project rule — clearly negative real wages |
Explainer → Are Wages Really Keeping Up With Inflation? The Informationist, 16 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON