Real wages
No fresh dataIs the cushion between pay and prices gone?
Real wage growth (Atlanta Fed tracker − CPI)
unknown since 1 Sept 2026 (was stress)
−0.5 pp on the monthas of 1 Sept 2026
No wage-tracker or CPI print since 1 Sep 2026.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= +0.5 pp | Project rule — his +0.4 reading was 'a rounding error' |
| Stress | <= 0.0 pp | Lavish, 16 Aug 2026 — “Whatever cushion you had between what you earn and what things cost is just about gone now” |
| Breach | <= −1.0 pp | Project rule — clearly negative real wages |
Explainer → Are Wages Really Keeping Up With Inflation? The Informationist, 16 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 1 Sept 2026 stress → No fresh data No wage-tracker or CPI print since 1 Sep 2026.
- 1 Sept 2026 unknown → Stress Wage growth (3.9 %) minus CPI (4.0 %) is −0.1 pp, 0.1 pp below Lavish's 0.0 pp stress line.
- 1 Aug 2026 unknown → Watch Wage growth (4.1 %) minus CPI (3.7 %) is +0.4 pp, 0.1 pp below the project's 0.5 pp watch line.
- 1 Aug 2026 watch → No fresh data No wage-tracker or CPI print since 1 Aug 2026.