6 Percent Club
StressCrisis-level deficits without a crisis.
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months
stress since 30 Sept 2026 (was watch)
Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months rose 0.7 pp over the month to 6.0 %, 0.0 pp above Lavish's 6.0 % stress line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 3.8 % | 50-year average (OMB Historical Tables) via 22 Feb 2026 |
| Stress | >= 6.0 % | Lavish, 22 Feb 2026 — “Welcome to the 6% Club.” |
| Breach | >= 9.0 % | Lavish, 22 Feb 2026 — “where do we end up after the next recession? 10%? 12%?” |
References: Dalio target 3.0 % (Lavish, 22 Feb 2026) · CBO 2036 6.7 % (Lavish, 22 Feb 2026)
Explainer → The Dubious 6% Club The Informationist, 22 Feb 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 30 Sept 2026 watch → Stress Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months rose 0.7 pp over the month to 6.1 %, 0.1 pp above Lavish's 6.0 % stress line.
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Watch Deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 5.4 %, 0.6 pp below Lavish's 6.0 % stress line.
Deficit, trailing 12 months
Deficit, trailing 12 months rose $225 B over the month to $1 993 B.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Dubious 6% Club The Informationist, 22 Feb 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking Deficit, trailing 12 months fell $178 B over the month to $1 768 B.
Receipts as share of GDP
calm since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Receipts as share of GDP is 16.4 %, inside the 16 %–19 % band (inside = Hauser's Law holding (Door 2 locked)).
Thresholds, rules and references
Calm band 16–19 — inside = Hauser's Law holding (Door 2 locked); cited
Explainer → Why Can't You Get Ahead The Informationist, 11 Jan 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Calm Receipts as share of GDP is 16.6 %, inside the 16 %–19 % band (inside = Hauser's Law holding (Door 2 locked)).