Term premium
StressIs the bond market charging for the risk?
10-year term premium (ACM)
calm since 28 Oct 2026 (was watch)
10-year term premium (ACM) fell 0.24 pp over the month to 0.68 %, 0.07 pp below the project's 0.75 % watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 0.75 % | Project rule — above the 71 bp he flagged as a five-year high |
| Stress | >= 1.00 % | Project rule — no numeric line stated by Lavish for the ACM 10-year |
| Breach | >= 1.50 % | Project rule — no numeric line stated by Lavish for the ACM 10-year |
References: 2025-04-26 0.65 % (Lavish, 27 Apr 2025) · 2025-12-12 0.71 % (Lavish, 14 Dec 2025)
Explainer → The Fed's Cutting Rates: Why Are Mortgages Still Expensive The Informationist, 14 Dec 2025 · CSV · JSON
- 28 Oct 2026 watch → Calm 10-year term premium (ACM) fell 0.10 pp over the month to 0.69 %, 0.06 pp below the project's 0.75 % watch line.
- 25 Sept 2026 calm → Watch 10-year term premium (ACM) rose 0.03 pp over the month to 0.77 %, 0.02 pp above the project's 0.75 % watch line.
- 18 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm 10-year term premium (ACM) fell 0.13 pp over the month to 0.64 %, 0.11 pp below the project's 0.75 % watch line.
30-year Treasury yield
stress since 26 Oct 2026 (was breach)
30-year Treasury yield fell 0.070 pp over the week to 5.250 %, 0.020 pp below the project's 5.270 % stress line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 5.000 % | Project rule — round-number level |
| Stress | >= 5.270 % | Project rule — the post-2007 high (5.267 %, 2026-07-31) he reported, used as a line |
| Breach | >= 5.500 % | Project rule — his failed-auction anatomy used a 5.50 % stop as the illustration |
Explainer → The Monday Brief: The Long End Didn't Take It The Informationist, 10 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 26 Oct 2026 breach → Stress 30-year Treasury yield fell 0.170 pp over the week to 5.310 %, 0.040 pp above the project's 5.270 % stress line.
- 28 Sept 2026 stress → Breach 30-year Treasury yield rose 0.270 pp over the week to 5.560 %, 0.060 pp above the project's 5.500 % breach line.
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Stress 30-year Treasury yield fell 0.050 pp over the week to 5.290 %, 0.020 pp above the project's 5.270 % stress line.
10-year real yield and breakeven
10-year real yield 2.60 % (−0.03 pp over the week); breakeven 2.24 % (−0.11 pp).
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Monday Brief: The Week Washington Bought Yen The Informationist, 3 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Tracking 10-year real yield 2.62 % (+0.02 % over the week); breakeven 2.34 % (−0.03 pp).
2s30s curve
2s30s curve rose 8 bp over the week to 79 bp, with no threshold set.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Monday Brief: A $432 Billion Month The Informationist, 17 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Tracking 2s30s curve fell 16 bp over the week to 53 bp, with no threshold set.