The rate the Treasury pays, nominal growth, and the primary deficit: gaining on the debt, treading water, or losing?
Nominal GDP growth 6.6 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.49 %: a gap of +3.1 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output).
References: his reading, Jun 2026 +3.1 pp (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026)
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Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 2.2 %.
References: his reading, 11 months FY2026 3.2 % (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026)
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calm since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Growth 6.6 % vs rate 3.49 %: a gap of 3.1 pp. Primary deficit 2.2 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: gaining. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (11 months annualised): primary deficit 3.2 % of GDP, net −0.1 pp: treading water.
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | <= +0.5 pp | Project rule — treading water: the growth-rate gap and the primary deficit within ±0.5 pp of GDP of each other; his reading was 'treading water, at best' |
| Stress | <= −0.5 pp | Project rule — losing: the primary deficit outruns the growth-rate gap by more than 0.5 pp of GDP |
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON