Grow out of it

Stress

The rate the Treasury pays, nominal growth, and the primary deficit: gaining on the debt, treading water, or losing?

Nominal growth minus the rate paid

Tracking
Receipt

Nominal growth minus the rate paid

+2.3 pp

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−0.6 pp vs previous quarteras of 30 Sept 2026

Nominal GDP growth 5.9 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.53 %: a gap of +2.3 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output).

+2.0 pp+4.0 pp+6.0 pp+8.0 pp+10.0 pp20222023202420252026his reading, Jun 2026
Thresholds, rules and references

References: his reading, Jun 2026 +3.1 pp (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026)

Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON

  • 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking Nominal GDP growth 6.6 % minus the average rate on interest-bearing debt 3.49 %: a gap of +3.1 pp (2.1 pp of the growth was real output).

Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months

Tracking
Receipt

Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months

2.8 %

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+0.7 pp on the monthas of 30 Sept 2026

Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months rose 0.7 pp over the month to 2.8 %.

2.0 %4.0 %6.0 %8.0 %10.0 %20222023202420252026his reading, 11 months FY2026
Thresholds, rules and references

References: his reading, 11 months FY2026 3.2 % (Lavish, 20 Sept 2026)

Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON

  • 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking Primary deficit as share of GDP, trailing 12 months fell 0.5 pp over the month to 2.2 %.

Gaining, treading water, or losing?

stress since 30 Sept 2026 (was watch)

Stress
Receipt

Gaining, treading water, or losing?

−0.5 pp

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−1.1 pp vs previous quarteras of 30 Sept 2026

Growth 5.9 % vs rate 3.53 %: a gap of 2.3 pp. Primary deficit 2.8 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: losing. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (12 months annualised): primary deficit 2.9 % of GDP, net −0.5 pp: losing.

−2.0 pp0.0 pp+2.0 pp+4.0 pp+6.0 pp20222023202420252026watch +0.5 pp (project)stress −0.5 pp (project)
dashed = thresholds
Thresholds, rules and references
Thresholds for Gaining, treading water, or losing?
StateRuleStated by
Watch<= +0.5 ppProject rule — treading water: the growth-rate gap and the primary deficit within ±0.5 pp of GDP of each other; his reading was 'treading water, at best'
Stress<= −0.5 ppProject rule — losing: the primary deficit outruns the growth-rate gap by more than 0.5 pp of GDP

Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON

  • 30 Sept 2026 calm → Watch Growth 6.3 % vs rate 3.53 %: a gap of 2.8 pp. Primary deficit 2.9 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: treading water. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (12 months annualised): primary deficit 2.9 % of GDP, net −0.1 pp: treading water.
  • 30 Sept 2026 watch → Stress Growth 5.9 % vs rate 3.53 %: a gap of 2.3 pp. Primary deficit 2.8 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: losing. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (12 months annualised): primary deficit 2.9 % of GDP, net −0.5 pp: losing.
  • 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Calm Growth 6.6 % vs rate 3.49 %: a gap of 3.1 pp. Primary deficit 2.2 % of GDP (trailing twelve months). Net: gaining. On his fiscal-year-to-date basis (11 months annualised): primary deficit 3.2 % of GDP, net −0.1 pp: treading water.
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