Debt Spiral
StressDeficit → debt → interest → bigger deficit. Is interest compounding faster than receipts?
Total public debt
Total debt rose $89 B over the month to $40.102 T; the last trillion took 113 days.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
Net interest, trailing 12 months
calm since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest over the trailing twelve months fell $7 B to $1 054 B, $196 B below the project's $1 250 B watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= $1 250 B | Project rule — just above the ~$1.2T he reported for 2026 |
| Stress | >= $1 400 B | Project rule — midpoint to the stated trigger |
| Breach | >= $1 500 B | Lavish, 29 Mar 2026 — “the interest expense blowing past $1.5 trillion” |
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON
Gross interest, trailing 12 months
Gross interest over the trailing twelve months fell $14 B to $1 359 B; net interest $1 054 B, so $305 B was interest received by trust funds.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
Net interest vs national defense
stress since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest $1 054 B (trailing twelve months) vs national defense $952 B: interest is 111 % of defense.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Stress | > 100 % | Lavish, 20 Sept 2026 — “net interest now exceeds National Defense” |
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
Net interest as share of receipts
watch since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest as share of receipts fell 0.2 pp over the month to 19.6 %, 0.6 pp above the cited 19.0 % watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 19.0 % | Janet Yellen, Brookings, Jan 2026 via 3 May 2026 |
| Stress | >= 25.0 % | Project rule — midway between Yellen's current and Moody's 2035 figures |
| Breach | >= 30.0 % | Moody's escalator 9 % (2021) → 18 % (2024) → 30 % (2035) via 18 May 2025 |
References: Yellen 3-decade path 28.0 % (Lavish, 3 May 2026)
Explainer → What If The Fed Raises Rates The Informationist, 24 May 2026 · CSV · JSON
10-year Treasury yield
stress since 21 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
10-year Treasury yield fell 0.01 pp over the week to 4.96 %, 0.04 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 4.25 % | Project rule — approach band below the stated line |
| Stress | >= 4.50 % (held 10 prints) | Lavish, 29 Mar 2026 — “If it pushes above 4.5% and holds, the doom loop math gets dramatically worse.” |
| Breach | >= 5.00 % | Project rule — round-number level widely treated as the long-end break |
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON
Average rate on interest-bearing debt
Average rate on interest-bearing debt rose 0.118 pp over the year to 3.490 %.
Thresholds, rules and references
References: his reading, end-Aug 2026 3.490 % (lavish, 20 Sept 2026) · marketable, late 2022 1.560 % (Lavish, 23 Aug 2026) · marketable, May 2026 3.373 % (Lavish, 24 May 2026)
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
Marketable debt maturing within 12 months
$10.8 T of marketable debt matures within 12 months (34 % of the stock) at a weighted-average coupon of 3.37 %; recent coupon auctions cleared 1.27 pp higher.
- Share of marketable stock
- 33.8 %
- Weighted-average coupon
- 3.37 %
- Recent coupon auctions cleared at
- 4.642 %
- Rollover rate gap
- +1.27 pp
Monthly buckets arrive with the next MSPD statement.
Thresholds, rules and references
Metric: sum(outstanding) where maturity_date <= as_of + 365d; share of marketable; weighted-average coupon of that paper; rollover_rate_gap = mean(high_yield of last-quarter coupon auctions) − that WAC
References: he reported 33 % rolls inside 12 months; $9.47T maturing in 2026 at ~2.3 % WAC (Lavish, 24 May 2026)
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON