Debt Spiral
StressDeficit → debt → interest → bigger deficit. Is interest compounding faster than receipts?
Total public debt
Total debt rose $301 B over the month to $40.550 T; the last trillion took 136 days.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 18 Sept 2026 unknown → Tracking Total debt rose $89 B over the month to $40.102 T; the last trillion took 113 days.
Net interest, trailing 12 months
calm since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest over the trailing twelve months fell $2 B to $1 052 B, $198 B below the project's $1 250 B watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= $1 250 B | Project rule — above CBO's $1,143 B FY2026 estimate, which he cites (What Is Fiscal Dominance?, 2026-10-11); the ~$1.2 T figure once quoted here was the FY2025 gross number |
| Stress | >= $1 400 B | Project rule — midpoint to the stated trigger |
| Breach | >= $1 500 B | Lavish, 29 Mar 2026 — “the interest expense blowing past $1.5 trillion” |
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Calm Net interest over the trailing twelve months fell $7 B to $1 054 B, $196 B below the project's $1 250 B watch line.
Gross interest, trailing 12 months
Gross interest over the trailing twelve months rose $1 B to $1 360 B; net interest $1 052 B, a gross-minus-net difference of $308 B.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking Gross interest over the trailing twelve months fell $14 B to $1 359 B; net interest $1 054 B, so $305 B was interest received by trust funds.
Net interest vs national defense
stress since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest $1 052 B (trailing twelve months) vs national defense $965 B: interest is 109 % of defense.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Stress | > 100 % | Lavish, 20 Sept 2026 — “net interest now exceeds National Defense” |
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Stress Net interest $1 054 B (trailing twelve months) vs national defense $952 B: interest is 111 % of defense.
Net interest as share of receipts
watch since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest as share of receipts fell 0.1 pp over the month to 19.5 %, 0.5 pp above the cited 19.0 % watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 19.0 % | Janet Yellen, Brookings, Jan 2026 via 3 May 2026 |
| Stress | >= 25.0 % | Project rule — midway between Yellen's current and Moody's 2035 figures |
| Breach | >= 30.0 % | Moody's escalator 9 % (2021) → 18 % (2024) → 30 % (2035) via 18 May 2025 |
References: Yellen 3-decade path 28.0 % (Lavish, 3 May 2026)
Explainer → What If The Fed Raises Rates The Informationist, 24 May 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Watch Net interest as share of receipts fell 0.2 pp over the month to 19.6 %, 0.6 pp above the cited 19.0 % watch line.
Net interest as share of GDP
watch since 31 Aug 2026
Net interest $1 052 B over the trailing twelve months is 3.19 % of GDP, 0.01 pp below the project's 3.20 % watch line. Reference points he showed: 1991 peak (Bianco, OMB) 3.20 %; CRFB FY2026 estimate, record 3.40 %.
Annual, fiscal years (OMB via FRED): 30 Jun 1960 to 30 Sept 2025. A different time base from the gauge above, so it is drawn on its own axis.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 3.20 % | Project rule — at or above the 1991 peak (3.2 %) on the Bianco Research chart (OMB/BEA data) he showed on 2026-10-11 |
| Stress | >= 4.00 % | Project rule — midway between the current record (CRFB's 3.4 % for FY2026) and Yellen's three-decade path (5.4 %) |
| Breach | >= 5.40 % | Janet Yellen, Brookings, Jan 2026: net interest 5.4 % of GDP over three decades via 3 May 2026 |
References: 1991 peak (Bianco, OMB) 3.20 % (cited: Bianco Research chart (Bloomberg, BEA, OMB), relayed 2026-10-11, via, 11 Oct 2026) · CRFB FY2026 estimate, record 3.40 % (cited: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, relayed 2026-10-11, via, 11 Oct 2026)
Explainer → What Is Fiscal Dominance? free issue; public permalink, 11 Oct 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 Watch Net interest $1 054 B over the trailing twelve months is 3.24 % of GDP, 0.04 pp above the project's 3.20 % watch line. Reference points he showed: 1991 peak (Bianco, OMB) 3.20 %; CRFB FY2026 estimate, record 3.40 %.
10-year Treasury yield
stress since 5 Nov 2026 (was breach)
10-year Treasury yield fell 0.14 pp over the week to 4.84 %, 0.16 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 4.25 % | Project rule — approach band below the stated line |
| Stress | >= 4.50 % (held 10 prints) | Lavish, 29 Mar 2026 — “If it pushes above 4.5% and holds, the doom loop math gets dramatically worse.” |
| Breach | >= 5.00 % | Project rule — round-number level widely treated as the long-end break |
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 5 Nov 2026 breach → Stress 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.14 pp over the week to 4.84 %, 0.16 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
- 23 Sept 2026 stress → Breach 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.10 pp over the week to 5.11 %, 0.11 pp above the project's 5.00 % breach line.
- 21 Sept 2026 unknown → Stress 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.01 pp over the week to 4.96 %, 0.04 pp below the project's 5.00 % breach line.
Average rate on interest-bearing debt
Average rate on interest-bearing debt rose 0.168 pp over the year to 3.531 %.
Thresholds, rules and references
References: his reading, end-Aug 2026 3.490 % (lavish, 20 Sept 2026) · marketable, late 2022 1.560 % (Lavish, 23 Aug 2026) · marketable, May 2026 3.373 % (Lavish, 24 May 2026)
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking Average rate on interest-bearing debt rose 0.118 pp over the year to 3.490 %.
Marketable debt maturing within 12 months
$10.6 T of marketable debt matures within 12 months (33 % of the stock) at a weighted-average coupon of 3.41 %; recent coupon auctions cleared 1.40 pp higher.
- Share of marketable stock
- 33.4 %
- Weighted-average coupon
- 3.41 %
- Recent coupon auctions cleared at
- 4.811 %
- Rollover rate gap
- +1.40 pp
Monthly buckets arrive with the next MSPD statement.
Thresholds, rules and references
Metric: sum(outstanding) where maturity_date <= as_of + 365d; share of marketable; weighted-average coupon of that paper; rollover_rate_gap = mean(high_yield of last-quarter coupon auctions) − that WAC
References: he reported 33 % rolls inside 12 months; $9.47T maturing in 2026 at ~2.3 % WAC (Lavish, 24 May 2026)
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking $10.8 T of marketable debt matures within 12 months (34 % of the stock) at a weighted-average coupon of 3.37 %; recent coupon auctions cleared 1.27 pp higher.