Four Doors
CalmAusterity, taxes, default, debasement. Which exit is actually open?
Which door is open
calm since 5 Nov 2026 (was stress)
Door 4 not evidenced this week: Buyback capacity this quarter change versus prior quarter: −$32.3 B (tracking); Fed balance sheet, 13-week change: −$422 M (calm).
- Austeritylocked — interest pct receipts (watch, 19.465369); outlays growth yoy ttm (tracking, 5.497865) — operationalises his 75 %/87 %/>100 % mandatory-plus-interest argument: outlays still growing while interest eats receipts · project rule
- Higher taxeslocked — receipts pct gdp ttm (calm, 16.368377) · cited
- Defaultlocked — Lavish: “doesn't exist” · his rule
- Debasementlocked — buyback quarter capacity (tracking, 38750000000.00); fed assets 13w change (calm, -422000000.000000) — his Door 4 is long-end balance-sheet expansion; a growing Fed book or a growing Treasury bid is the observable · project rule
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → Trump's New Fed Chair: Does It Even Matter? The Informationist, 1 Feb 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 5 Nov 2026 stress → Calm Door 4 not evidenced this week: Buyback capacity this quarter change versus prior quarter: −$32.3 B (tracking); Fed balance sheet, 13-week change: −$422 M (calm).
- 22 Sept 2026 unknown → Stress Door 4 open: fed_assets_13w_change +$10 B (calm); buyback_quarter_capacity +$67 B (tracking); doors austerity, taxes locked.
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change
calm since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $8 B over the week to −$422 M, $50 B below the project's $50 B watch line.
His reading rule We'll know it's more liquidity by the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.
— Lavish, What Is Fiscal Dominance? (11 Oct 2026)
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= $50 B | Project rule — expansion beyond reserve-management noise |
| Stress | >= $150 B | Project rule — ≈ $50B/month, QE-scale |
Explainer → How to Read a Fed That Stopped Talking The Informationist, 21 Jun 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 16 Sept 2026 unknown → Calm Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $5 B over the week to +$10 B, $40 B below the project's $50 B watch line.
Outlays growth, trailing 12 months
Outlays growth, trailing 12 months rose 5.1 pp over the month to +5.5 %, with no threshold set.
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Dubious 6% Club The Informationist, 22 Feb 2026 · CSV · JSON
- 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Tracking Outlays growth, trailing 12 months fell 2.3 pp over the month to +0.4 %, with no threshold set.