Treasury supply
WatchAuctions and buybacks: are buyers showing up, and is Treasury bidding for its own paper?
Latest coupon auction
watch since 15 Sept 2026 (was tracking)
19-Year 11-Month auction on 15 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.57× vs 2.64× trailing-12 mean; dealers 16.9 %, indirects 52.5 %; high yield 5.420 %; tail not computed.
- btc
- 2.57×
- dealer share
- 16.9 %
- indirect share
- 52.5 %
- direct share
- 30.7 %
- high yield
- 5.420 %
- tail bp
- not computed
- 12-auction mean btc
- 2.64×
- 12-auction mean dealer share
- 10.8 %
The when-issued tail is not computed (no free source). It is shown only when the editor enters it with a citation. All auctions →
Thresholds, rules and references
- Calm
btc >= mean12(btc) - 0.10 and dealer_share <= mean12(dealer_share) + 5 and indirect_share >= mean12(indirect_share) - 5 - Watch
otherwise - Stress
btc < 2.0 or dealer_share >= 30 - Breach
dealer_share >= 50 or (tail_bp is not null and tail_bp >= 3 and term in ['10-Year','30-Year']) - Project rules: he names the internals (indirect bid first, then tail, then bid-to-cover) but gives no numbers; bands are relative to the trailing twelve auctions of the same term
Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON
Latest buyback operation
watch since 17 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
7Y to 10Y buyback on 17 Sep 2026: $9.74 B offered against a $4.0 B cap (2.4× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $2.39 B (−$1.62 B vs the cap).
- cap
- $4.00 B
- offered
- $9.74 B
- accepted
- $2.39 B
- oversubscription
- 2.4×
- cap taken pct
- 59.6 %
- intent vs cap
- −$1.62 B
Thresholds, rules and references
- Calm
offered / cap >= 5 and accepted >= cap - Watch
otherwise - Stress
offered / cap < 2 - Breach
offered < cap - Project rules: his 2026-09-08 reference was 7.9–15.3× oversubscribed with 100 % of the cap taken; 5× keeps 'calm' well inside that; undersubscription would mean sellers did not show up
Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
Buyback capacity this quarter
18 operations scheduled 1 Jul–29 Sep 2026 with caps totalling $67.0 B ($42 B liquidity support, $25 B cash management).
- Operations
- 18 (16 done)
- Liquidity support
- $42.0 B
- Cash management
- $25.0 B
- Previous quarter
- $106.0 B
Thresholds, rules and references
Metric: sum(MaximumPurchaseAmountDollars) over the current calendar window; split liquidity_support / cash_management
Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON
Foreign official holdings of Treasuries
Foreign official holdings fell $5.0 B on the month to $3 773.1 B (no consecutive monthly rise).
Thresholds, rules and references
Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON