Treasury supply

• Calm btc >= mean12(btc) - 0.10 and dealer_share <= mean12(dealer_share) + 5 and indirect_share >= mean12(indirect_share) - 5
• Watch otherwise
• Stress btc < 2.0 or dealer_share >= 30
• Breach dealer_share >= 50 or (tail_bp is not null and tail_bp >= 3 and term in ['10-Year','30-Year'])
• Project rules: he names the internals (indirect bid first, then tail, then bid-to-cover) but gives no numbers; bands are relative to the trailing twelve auctions of the same term

Explainer → Why the Treasury's Nightmare May Soon Be Yours The Informationist, 29 Mar 2026 · CSV · JSON

• 7 Oct 2026 watch → Calm 9-Year 10-Month auction on 7 Oct 2026: bid-to-cover 2.77× vs 2.51× trailing-12 mean; dealers 2.5 %, indirects 80.3 %; high yield 5.300 %; tail not computed.
• 23 Sept 2026 calm → Watch 5-Year auction on 23 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.21× vs 2.34× trailing-12 mean; dealers 15.8 %, indirects 54.3 %; high yield 5.033 %; tail not computed.
• 22 Sept 2026 watch → Calm 2-Year auction on 22 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.63× vs 2.61× trailing-12 mean; dealers 13.2 %, indirects 57.8 %; high yield 4.787 %; tail not computed.
• 15 Sept 2026 tracking → Watch 19-Year 11-Month auction on 15 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.57× vs 2.64× trailing-12 mean; dealers 16.9 %, indirects 52.5 %; high yield 5.420 %; tail not computed.
• 15 Sept 2026 Tracking 19-Year 11-Month auction on 15 Sep 2026: bid-to-cover 2.57× vs — trailing-12 mean; dealers 16.9 %, indirects 52.5 %; high yield 5.420 %; tail not computed.

• Calm offered / cap >= 5 and accepted >= cap
• Watch otherwise
• Stress offered / cap < 2
• Breach offered < cap
• Project rules: his 2026-09-08 reference was 7.9–15.3× oversubscribed with 100 % of the cap taken; 5× keeps 'calm' well inside that; undersubscription would mean sellers did not show up

Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON

• 4 Nov 2026 stress → Calm 10Y to 20Y buyback on 4 Nov 2026: $39.64 B offered against a $6.0 B cap (6.6× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $6.00 B (the full cap).
• 27 Oct 2026 calm → Stress 20Y to 30Y buyback on 27 Oct 2026: $10.75 B offered against a $6.0 B cap (1.8× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $6.00 B (the full cap).
• 15 Oct 2026 watch → Calm 10Y to 20Y buyback on 15 Oct 2026: $40.84 B offered against a $6.0 B cap (6.8× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $6.00 B (the full cap).
• 6 Oct 2026 calm → Watch 2Y to 3Y buyback on 6 Oct 2026: $14.76 B offered against a $4.0 B cap (3.7× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $1.33 B (−$2.67 B vs the cap).
• 1 Oct 2026 watch → Calm 10Y to 20Y buyback on 1 Oct 2026: $46.39 B offered against a $6.0 B cap (7.7× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $6.00 B (the full cap).
• 29 Sept 2026 stress → Watch 1Y to 10Y buyback on 29 Sep 2026: $3.98 B offered against a $750 M cap (5.3× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $605 M (−$145 M vs the cap).
• 24 Sept 2026 watch → No fresh data No completed buyback operation yet.
• 24 Sept 2026 watch → Stress 20Y to 30Y buyback on 24 Sep 2026: $10.47 B offered against a $6.0 B cap (1.7× oversubscribed); Treasury accepted $4.08 B (−$1.92 B vs the cap); the 4th under-cap take in 54 long-end operations.

Metric: sum(MaximumPurchaseAmountDollars) over the current calendar window; split liquidity_support / cash_management

Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON

• 17 Sept 2026 unknown → Tracking 16 operations scheduled 1 Jul–17 Sep 2026 with caps totalling $64.3 B ($39 B liquidity support, $25 B cash management).

Explainer → Did the US Treasury Just Blink? The Informationist, 23 Aug 2026 · CSV · JSON

• 31 Aug 2026 unknown → Watch Bills as share of marketable debt rose 0.6 pp over the month to 22.8 %, 2.2 pp below the project's 25.0 % stress line.

Explainer → The Informationist Institutional, No. 1 — The Global Bond Bar Tab quarterly letter for professional allocators; members-only PDF, no public permalink, 20 Sept 2026 · CSV · JSON

• 1 Jul 2026 unknown → Tracking Foreign official holdings fell $5.0 B on the month to $3 773.1 B (no consecutive monthly rise).