Fiscal dominance
WatchWhen the Treasury's needs override the Fed's intentions.
Fiscal dominance is a regime, not a number: this page composes the six readings that show whether fiscal need has overridden monetary intent. Each gauge keeps its own thresholds and receipts on its home framework.
Net interest as share of receipts
watch since 31 Aug 2026 (was unknown)
Net interest as share of receipts fell 0.2 pp over the month to 19.6 %, 0.6 pp above the cited 19.0 % watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 19.0 % | Janet Yellen, Brookings, Jan 2026 via 3 May 2026 |
| Stress | >= 25.0 % | Project rule — midway between Yellen's current and Moody's 2035 figures |
| Breach | >= 30.0 % | Moody's escalator 9 % (2021) → 18 % (2024) → 30 % (2035) via 18 May 2025 |
References: Yellen 3-decade path 28.0 % (Lavish, 3 May 2026)
Explainer → What If The Fed Raises Rates The Informationist, 24 May 2026 · CSV · JSON
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change
calm since 16 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Fed balance sheet, 13-week change fell $5 B over the week to +$10 B, $40 B below the project's $50 B watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= $50 B | Project rule — expansion beyond reserve-management noise |
| Stress | >= $150 B | Project rule — ≈ $50B/month, QE-scale |
Explainer → How to Read a Fed That Stopped Talking The Informationist, 21 Jun 2026 · CSV · JSON
10-year term premium (ACM)
calm since 18 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
10-year term premium (ACM) fell 0.26 pp over the month to 0.58 %, 0.17 pp below the project's 0.75 % watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= 0.75 % | Project rule — above the 71 bp he flagged as a five-year high |
| Stress | >= 1.00 % | Project rule — no numeric line stated by Lavish for the ACM 10-year |
| Breach | >= 1.50 % | Project rule — no numeric line stated by Lavish for the ACM 10-year |
References: 2025-04-26 0.65 % (Lavish, 27 Apr 2025) · 2025-12-12 0.71 % (Lavish, 14 Dec 2025)
Explainer → The Fed's Cutting Rates: Why Are Mortgages Still Expensive The Informationist, 14 Dec 2025 · CSV · JSON
Standing Repo Facility
watch since 22 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
Standing Repo Facility take-up was $0.0 B on 22 Sep 2026; 4 of the last 5 sessions saw take-up.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | any(last(5) > 0) | Lavish, 2 Nov 2025 — “when usage starts climbing and staying elevated” |
| Stress | count(last(5) > 10e9) >= 3 | Project rule — persistent, not one-off |
| Breach | any(last(5) >= 50e9) | Project rule — the 2025-10-31 record ($50.35B) as the bar |
Explainer → The Fed's Favorite Lie: This Isn't QE The Informationist, 2 Nov 2025 · CSV · JSON
SOFR − EFFR
calm since 21 Sept 2026 (was unknown)
SOFR − EFFR fell 2 bp over the week to −3 bp, 8 bp below the project's 5 bp watch line.
Thresholds, rules and references
| State | Rule | Stated by |
|---|---|---|
| Watch | >= +5 bp | Project rule — SOFR trading above fed funds |
| Stress | >= +19 bp | Lavish, 19 Oct 2025 — “SOFR-EFFR at +0.19 … this isn't a spike, it's a regime change” |
| Breach | >= +50 bp | Project rule — September-2019-type dislocation |
Explainer → Why QT is Dead and QE is Coming The Informationist, 19 Oct 2025 · CSV · JSON